2017 - Round 15 Results - Much as I Expected

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It was, as we predicted, a fairly unpredictable round, with only two favourites emerging victorious and another snatching a draw.

That unpredictability reflected in the week's scores for the Head-to-Head Tipsters, who managed a best of 4.5 from 9 (Consult The Ladder) and a collective average of just 3.3 from 9. Consult The Ladder's performance moved it into a share of 3rd with MoSSBODS_Marg on 73.5 from 126 (58%), three tips adrift of the two RSMP Tipsters, now on 76.5 from 126 (61%) after both recorded scores of 3.5 from 9.

The two RSMP Margin Predictors performed well, their 23.8 points per game mean absolute errors (MAEs) inferior only to that of Bookie_9 (23.4), and good enough to move them into 2nd and 3rd spots on the MoS Leaderboard. MoSSBODS_Marg's MAE of 27.7 points per game was the worst of all the Predictors and saw it slip back into 5th place, now trailing MoSHBODS_Marg, the two RSMP Predictors and Bookie_9.

It's interesting to note that C_Marg, who sits last on the Leaderboard, has one of the best records for tipping margins within 2 goals of the final result, but suffers because it has by far the worst record for tipping margins in error by 7 goals or more. As we've noted here before, success in margin prediction is usually more about not being very wrong than it is about being consistently very close to right.

There wasn't much to separate the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors this week, all of them registering fairly large negative probability scores, the worst of them belonging to MoSSBODS_Prob and the least-worst to Bookie_OE.

The weekend's results left Bookie_OE in top spot with MoSHBODS_Prob still in second, and saw Bookie_RE move ahead of Bookie_LPSO into 3rd.

WAGERS

St Kilda's eventual, narrow victory over Fremantle ensured that the loss from the weekend's wagering wasn't too large, but a loss it was with both the Head-to-Head and Overs/Unders Funds recording losses of around a couple of percent.

Altogether, the week's loss amounted to 0.6% of the original Overall Portfolio, which leaves that portfolio up by 24% on the season (a 16.8% ROI on a 1.43 turn).