2017 - Round 23 : Overs/Unders Update

/

This week, five teams are expected to score 100 points or more by at least one forecaster, the Brisbane Lions, Sydney, Port Adelaide and Essendon expected to do so by all four. MoSSBODS alone adds the Kangaroos to that list.

The two bookmakers have Essendon as the round's high-scoring team, the MoS twins preferring Port Adelaide. All of them have Carlton as the round's low-scoring team.

All four also have the round's high-scoring game as the Lions v Roos fixture, and have the Swans v Blues game as at least the equal-lowest scoring game of the round.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have the home teams, on average, scoring about 4 or 5 points fewer than the bookmakers have them scoring, and have the away teams scoring 1 or 2 points more. As such, the MoS twins' average home team margins are about 2 or 3 points smaller, on average, than the bookmakers'.

WAGERS

This week Investors face the unusual situation of having wagers at two different Totals in four games. This came about because Centrebet capped the wager size they were willing to accept in each of those four games we were interested in at about one-half of our regular wager. Odd that they should do this after 6 losses in 8 weeks.

Anyway, the overlays with both the TAB and Centrebet were sufficiently large to warrant wagers, so that's what we've done.

All four wagers this week are unders bets so we're positively exposed to inclement weather in all four, which makes a nice change from our experiences in recent weeks where rain and slippery conditions have contributed to the sinking of a few or our overs bets.

Last week, MoSHBODS turned in the round's best mean absolute error (MAE) on Away team scores (18.9 points per game), while the TAB had the lowest MAEs for Totals (25.7), Home team scores (16.2), and game Margins (23.6).

That left MoSHBODS still with the best season-long performance on game Margin (28.2), the TAB 1st on Away team scores (17.2) and on Totals (20.9), and Centrebet 1st on Home team scores (17.6).

MoSSBODS picked the right side of the TAB and Centrebet Totals in 5 of the 9 contests last week, and MoSHBODS did the same in 4 of the 9.

Consequently, MoSSBODS' season-long record against the TAB is now 100 from 189 (53%) and against Centrebet 98 from 189 (52%), while MoSHBODS' is 99 from 189 (52%) against both the TAB and Centrebet.