2017 - Round 21 : Overs/Unders Update

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Six teams are considered likely to score 100 points or more this weekend according to at least one of the four forecasters.

All of them have Sydney and Adelaide achieving that feat, all but MoSSBODS have Brisbane doing the same (MoSSBODS, oddly enough, having the Gold Coast doing it instead in the same game), all but MoSSBODS has Hawthorn doing it as well, and Centrebet, alone, has Port Adelaide doing it too.

MoSSBODS and the Centrebet bookmaker have Adelaide as the round's high-scoring team, while MoSHBODS has the Brisbane Lions, and the TAB bookmaker has Sydney.

Fremantle is the likely low-scoring team according to MoSSBODS, MoSHBODS and Centrebet, while the TAB has gone narrowly with Carlton.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have the round's high-scoring game as the Lions v Suns clash, with the final total in that game likely to be around 204 points, while the TAB and Centrebet have it as the Dons v Crows game with a total of just a few points less.

All four forecasters are suggesting that the average total for the round will be somewhere around 176 to 178 points per game, which is again about a goal higher than last week's average. The all-season average currently stands at 179 points per game..

WAGERS

Just three overs/unders wagers this week as the estimated overlays in most of the games have come in under 3 points.

Looking at the two overs wagers, the forecast for Kardinia on Saturday for the Cats v Tigers game is for a "shower or two" (let's hope it's singular), while the Gabba forecast for the Lions v Suns game is, appropriately and happily, "sunny". 

Last week, MoSSBODS turned in  the round's best mean absolute error (MAE) on Totals (11.9 points per game), MoSHBODS the best MAE for Home team scores (15.4), while Centrebet had the lowest MAEs for Margins (27.6) and for Away team scores (13.8).

That left MoSHBODS still with the best season-long performance on game Margin (28.6), the TAB 1st on Away team scores (17.2) and on Totals (21.0), and Centrebet 1st on Home team scores (17.8).

Both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS had much better Totals forecasts results last week, picking the right side of the TAB and Centrebet Totals in 6 of the 9 contests. 

That left MoSSBODS with a season-long 91 from 171 (53%) record against the TAB and an 89 from 171 (52%) record against Centrebet. MoSHBODS has a 90 from 171 (53%) record against both the TAB and Centrebet.