2017 - Round 17 : Overs/Unders Update

/

Despite last week's average Total score of almost 190 points per game, our four forecasters are back this week suggesting that the average for Round 17 will be about 10 points per game lower.

All four predict that Port Adelaide, Adelaide, and Richmond will be the only teams scoring more than 100 points, with three of the forecasters - MoSHBODS and the two bookmakers - tipping Port Adelaide to register the overall highest score amongst them, somewhere in the 113-120 range. MoSSBODS prefers Richmond for that achievement and predicts they'll score 121 points.

Our forecasters also agree that Carlton are the likely low-scoring team (in the TAB's case, jointly with the Brisbane Lions, and in MoSHBODS', jointly with the Kangaroos) with estimates ranging from 69 points (MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS) to 75 (TAB). 

The bookmakers have set Totals below 190 points in every game, while MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have a handful of games likely to go slightly over that Total:

  • MoSSBODS: Port Adelaide v Kangaroos (193), and Richmond v Brisbane Lions (193)
  • MoSHBODS: Port Adelaide v Kangaroos (191), Richmond v Brisbane Lions (192), and Melbourne v Adelaide (191)

WAGERS

There are four games this week where MoSSBODS' opinions diverge sufficiently from at least one of the bookmakers to permit the Overs/Unders Fund to make a wager. Those wagers are split equally between over and under bets.

The biggest overlay, and the only one in double-digits, is in the Blues v Dogs game where it's 10.2 points. The next biggest is in the other game where Investors have an unders bet: the Cats v Hawks game.

The venues for the two contests where we've overs bets are at the Sydney Showground and Docklands stadia. The forecast for the former on Saturday is "partly cloudy", while the forecast for the latter should be totally irrelevant barring an unexpected downpour and a decision to have left the roof open.

Last week was another good one for the TAB bookmaker in mean absolute error (MAE) terms. He was closest in terms of Margins (32.9 points per game), Away team scores (19.8 points per game) and Total scores (22.1 points per game). Centrebet did best on Home team scores (13.8 points per game).

That left MoSHBODS still with the best season-long performance on game Margin (29.6) and Away team scores (17.6), Centrebet still 1st on Home team scores (18.4), and TAB still 1st on Totals (21.8).

MoSSBODS managed only 3 from 9 performances against the TAB and Centrebet last week, and now has a 72 from 135 (53%) season-long record against both TAB and Centrebet Totals. MoSHBODS recorded a 3 from 9 against the TAB, and just a 2 from 9 against Centrebet, and now has a 70 from 135 (52%) record against the TAB, and a 73 from 135 (54%) record against Centrebet.