2017 - Round 26 (Week 3 of the Finals) : Only One Bird Remains

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Only C_Marg has dared tip against the favourites this week, it opting for an upset Giants win over the Tigers by about 3 points.

In other Head-to-Head Tipster new3s, MoSSBODS_Marg and the two RSMP Tipsters have all opted for the favourites in both games, which means that MoSSBODS_Marg is now unassailable at the top of the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard. At worst, it will win by 1 tip.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, C_Marg is the most bullish about the chances of the Crows and the Giants, whilst ENS_Linear is the most bullish about the Tigers' chances, and MoSHBODS the most bearish about the Crows'.

Nonetheless, relative to the two RSMP Predictors who fill 2nd and 3rd spots, MoSHBODS_Marg's forecasts are not vastly different, so it's assured of remaining at the top of the Leaderboard heading into the Grand Final.

MoSHBODS_Marg's lead over RSMP_Simple is just under 15 points and will:

  • Increase by 3 points if Adelaide win by 15 points or fewer and decrease by 3 points if Adelaide win by 18 points or more
  • Increase by 5 points if Richmond win by 10 points or more and decrease by 5 points if Richmond win by 5 points or fewer

For the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the broader range of estimates have come in the Richmond v GWS clash where C_Prob's 46% and MoSSBODS_Prob's 65% define a 19% point range. In the other game, the extremes are MoSHBODS_Prob's 67% and C_Prob's 81%.

MoSHBODS_Prob, the current leader, will suffer most if Adelaide lose to Geelong. The result in the other game will have limited effect as MoSHBODS_Prob's estimate is quite close to the those of the three bookmaker-based Predictors that immediately trail it on the Leaderboard

WAGERS

Just the one bet this week, a line bet of 1.9% on Adelaide -16.5 at $1.90. The estimated overlay for that bet is about 14 points since MoSSBODS has the Crows winning this game by 30 points.

The bet moves Adelaide ahead of Collingwood in terms of total Line Fund wagering this year. Just under 25% of the original Line Fund has now been wagered on the Crows this season across 11 wagers, and the 8 and 2 record so far has seen 16% added to the value of that Fund.

Success this week will add about another 1.7% to that Line Fund and therefore 0.7% to the Overall Portfolio. Failure will strip about 0.8% from the Overall Portfolio.

With the limited exposure this week and only the Grand Final to come after that, it seems certain now that 2017 will be the best ever season for MoS wagering, comfortably surpassing the 13% return last season. That will mean that Investors have enjoyed profits in 7 of the 12 seasons - though, to be fair, the losses in some seasons have been very large and the profits quite small. It'll be interesting to see what the overall record looks like once this season is out.

Moving next to the score forecasts we find relatively low total scores predicted again by all four forecasters, lowest of all for the Tigers v Giants game.

MoSSBODS has Geelong as the round's low-scoring team, while the three other forecasters have GWS (albeit very narrowly in the case of the two bookmakers). All four have Adelaide as the round's high-scoring team.

The overlays in both games relative to MoSSBODS' views are all quite small - under 3 points, in fact - with the result that Investors have no over/under wagers this week.

Last week, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS finished on the wrong side of the two bookmakers' Totals in both games. As a result, MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' season-long records against both the TAB and Centrebet now stand at 104 from 204 (or 51%).

In terms of mean absolute errors (MAEs), last week MoSSBODS outperformed on every metric except Totals, with an MAE on game Margins of 53.7 points per game, on Home team scores of 24.8 points, and on Away team scores of 28.9 points. Centrebet did best on Totals with an MAE of 19.0 points per game.

That left MoSHBODS with the best season-long performance on game Margin (28.9), Centrebet with the best MAE for Home team scores (17.9), and the TAB with the best MAE on Away team scores (17.4) and on Totals (20.7).