2017 - Team Ratings After Round 14

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Port Adelaide now sits atop the MoSSBODS Combined Ratings and has moved into 3rd on MoSHBODS on the backend of a 31-point and 11 scoring shot victory over Collingwood. The Pies fell three places on MoSSBODS and two places on MoSHBODS based on that same result.

Richmond were the round's biggest climbers, rising three places on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS into 6th and 5th places respectively.

Geelong, who fell three places on MoSHBODS into 8th but remained unmoved in 10th on MoSSBODS, are the only team now ranked more than a single place differently by the two Systems.

Both Systems currently rate 11 teams as above-average though the 11 that they include differ in that MoSSBODS includes West Coast and excludes Essendon while MoSHBODS does the opposite.

At the component level, it remains the case that no team is ranked more than two places differently by the two Systems on Offence.

On Defence, however:

  • Adelaide is ranked 10th by MoSSBODS and 7th by MoSHBODS
  • GWS is ranked 9th by MoSSBODS and 5th by MoSHBODS
  • Sydney is ranked 1st by MoSSBODS and 4th by MoSHBODS
  • Melbourne is ranked 5th by MoSSBODS and 10th by MoSHBODS
  • West Coast is ranked 6th by MoSSBODS and 9th by MoSHBODS

To put that in some context we should note how compressed the Defensive Ratings are from 5th to 12th under both Systems. On MoSSBODS, the difference between the 5th-placed Melbourne (+0.8) and the 12th-placed Geelong (-0.2) is only a single scoring shot, or about 3.7 points using teams' average conversion rate from 2016. Similarly, on MoSHBODS, the difference between the 5th-placed GWS (+3.3) and the 12th-placed Geelong (+1.0) is only 2.3 points.

Both Systems agree that the three best offensive teams remain, in order, Adelaide, GWS and Port Adelaide.

For defence, MoSSBODS has the top 3 as Sydney, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs, while MoSHBODS has it as Richmond, the Western Bulldogs, and then Port Adelaide.

Looking next at ranking changes, on offence only Collingwood moved significantly on both Systems, down 5 places into 9th on MoSSBODS, and down 2 places into 8th on MoSHBODS. On defence, Adelaide fell 5 places on MoSSBODS and 2 on MoSHBODS, while St Kilda rose 3 places on MoSSBODS and 2 on MoSHBODS. Bear in mind again though, when considering these moves, the compressed nature of the absolute Ratings, as noted earlier. 

You can see this compression in the latest round-by-round MoSSBODS Rating journey animation.

Next we compare the current MoSSBODS Ratings to those for every other team in history at the same point in their respective seasons.

This week's chart underscores just how competitive the season is at this point. None of the teams are close to the Ratings of the greatest teams from the past at the same points in their seasons, and only Port Adelaide has a Combined Rating that would place it in the top half of the Combined Ratings of previous Grand Finalists.

Expressed in a more glass half-empty manner, we're not seeing any teams this year that appear destined to become remembered as one of the greats. It might be the competition, not the ultimate winner, that's what we'll recall in years to come.

ChiPS AND MARS

This week ChiPS and MARS both altered the ranking of seven teams and none of them by more than 2 places.

That left ChiPS with an unchanged Top 3 of Adelaide, GWS and Port Adelaide, and MARS with a new Top 3 of Adelaide, GWS and Port Adelaide after Sydney dropped Rating Points and slipped back into 4th after its narrow win over Essendon.

As usual, we'll finish by tabling the overall team rankings of all four Systems and comparing them with the current competition ladder ordering. Again, note that the icons here denote System team ranking relative to ladder ranking.

Sydney, Collingwood and the Kangaroos stand out as the teams that are ranked much higher by the Rating Systems than their ladder position would suggest, while Fremantle and West Coast (MARS aside) stand out as the teams whose ladder positions might flatter them a little.

Across the four Systems we see the largest disparity in the rankings of:

  • Geelong (5th in ChiPS and MARS to 10th in MoSSBODS)
  • Richmond (4th in ChiPS to 9th in MARS)
  • West Coast (6th in MARS to 12th on MoSHBODS)
  • St Kilda (8th on MoSSBODS to 13th on ChiPS)