2016 - Round 11 Results - Good Areas

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Another small profit for the Overall Portfolio this week, with the Over/Under Fund making a significant contribution by landing four from five and moving into the black for the first time since Round 4.

The Line Fund also showed a profit on the week, its fifth in six weeks and its ninth for the season, but the Head-to-Head Fund made yet another loss, its seventh in succession.

All told, the Overall Portfolio grew by 1.2c to be up now by 21.9c on the season. (Please note that while undertaking a routine reconciliation of the Funds on the weekend I discovered I'd credited the Line Fund with a win on a Gold Coast wager in Round 7 that was actually a loss. That adjustment lowered the Line Fund's price by about 1.2c and the Overall Portfolio's price by about 0.5c.)

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

This weekend, 8 of the 9 favourites won, which, with the historically low levels of disagreement amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, meant that every Tipster managed to correctly forecast 7 or 8 of the 9 results.

The all-Tipster average came in at 7.7 and the high-scoring by all of the top Tipsters left MoSSBODS_Marg still two tips clear of BKB at the top of the Leaderboard.

A few of the wins, however, were larger than expected, which nudged the mean absolute errors (MAEs) for the Margin Predictors a little higher. The all-Predictor average MAE was 31.0 points per game and the round's best MAE of 28.5 belonged to C_Marg, which allowed it to extend its lead to over 40 points over Bookie_LPSO.

The round's worst MAE was ENS_Linear's 33.1 points per game. Only slightly better was MoSSBODS_Marg's 32.6, which ensured its slide down the Leaderboard continued this week. It has now slipped from 1st to 9th over a period of just four rounds and sits about 12 goals behind C_Marg 

The two RSMP Predictors have been big climbers in recent weeks, both moving up three places last weekend and five places since Round 7. Bookie_LPSO has been another rapidly ascending Tipster, it climbing from 8th to 2nd in just two weeks.

MoSSBODS_Prob fared a little better than MoSSBODS_Marg, recording the weekend's 2nd-best probability score, just slightly behind that of Bookie_LPSO. MoSSBODS_Prob still sits 4th on the ladder though, ahead only of Bookie-OE. 

C_Prob did enough to retain 1st position ahead of Bookie_LPSO. The spirit of my still much-missed Chihuahua lives on.