2016 - Round 12 Results - A ChiPS Triumph
/There are, I'd contend, good losses and bad ones, and their ordering is not entirely determined by their magnitude.
This weekend the Overall Portfolio dropped just under 3c, but for much of the early parts of festivities I expected that decline to be much greater, especially after the first eight bets of the round had all been revealed as ill-considered.
After that disastrous start, the Head-to-Head and Line Funds landed three of their remaining four wagers each, however, which kept the total loss to a manageable size - and one that I'd label, at least in relative terms, "good".
The Overall Portfolio is now up by just under 14c on the season, which those of you following closely might recognise is a little smaller than you'd get if you added the profit alluded to in last week's blog post to this week's loss. Excel (well, let's be honest, with my complicity) had contrived to apply the incorrect weights to the underlying Funds with the result that the overall profit was slightly overstated. That deficiency has now been rectified. (Note that the figures shown in the chart under the Latest Information section of the Navigation Bar have always been correct.)
And, look, there's precedent in the field of my original training for far more egregious spreadsheet errors ...
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
This week was something of a shootout between ChiPS and MoSSBODS, with C_Marg, for example, differing in its head-to-head predictions from MoSSBODS_Marg in three of the nine games.
C_Marg won that battle, correctly selecting the winner in seven of the games to MoSSBODS_Marg's six, that score for C_Marg the best of all MoS' Head-to-Head Tipsters and moving it into equal-second with BKB, though still two tips behind MoSSBODS_Marg. MoSSBODS_Marg's record is now 82 and 26 for the season, which is a 76% accuracy rate.
C_Marg prevailed over MoSSBODS_Marg in the margin prediction arena too, C_Marg's mean absolute error of 33.2 points per game far better than MoSSBODS_Marg's 40 points per game and again, in fact, representing the best of all the MoS Margin Predictors.
As a result, C_Marg extended its lead at the top of the Leaderboard, which now stands at over 13 goals to Bookie_LPSO. ENS_Greedy jumped two spots to take up the Bronze Medal position, as ENS_Greedy_MoS, suffering greatly from its affiliation with MoSSBODS, fell four places to 7th.
The two RSMP Predictors have now quietly manoeuvred themselves into 4th and 5th places, having been much more lowly-ranked for most of the early parts of the season. Bookie_Hcap continues to languish in last place.
And, finally, the other member of the ChiPS-based forecasting family, C_Prob, recorded the week's best probability score to extend its lead atop that part of the MoS Tipster Dashboard, the remaining probability predictors all turning in roughly similar and lower scores.
It's almost enough to make you wish that the MoS Funds were using ChiPS this year and not MoSSBODS ...
