2016 Round 9 : Needing the Suns to Shine
/Again this week Investors have four head-to-head and four line wagers, two on favourites and two on underdogs.
Amongst them are a standard-sized head-to-head wager at $8 and a relatively large line wager with 45.5 points start on Gold Coast, the pair offering a profit of almost 8c should the Suns prevail against the Crows on Saturday.
Next best for Investors would be the slightly less-unlikely result of Port Adelaide toppling West Coast on the same day, that eventuality having attached to it a 3.5c gain for the Overall Portfolio.
In the other games, a Fremantle win by 3 points or more offers a 1.6c gain, and a GWS win by 15 points or more a 0.6c gain.
Maximum losses would accrue should the Suns lose by 46 points or more, or Port Adelaide lose by 26 points or more. Both those outcomes would lop 2c off the value of the Overall Portfolio.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
It's a week of abnormally high levels of consilience amongst the three sets of Tipsters and Predictors, the all-Tipster Disagreement Index for the Head-to-Head Tipsters at a joint season-low of 13%, the all-Predictor average mean absolute deviation (MAD) amongst the Margin Predictors at a joint season-low 4.2 points per Predictor per game, and the all-Predictor MAD for the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors just 3.7% points per Predictor per game - not a season low, but not far from that low of 3.3% points per Predictor per game.
Only two Head-to-Head Tipsters have Disagreement Indexes above the group average, Home Sweet Home (38%) and Consult The Ladder (23%), and only one game has a minority group of Predictors larger than one. In that game, three Tipsters have opted for the Tigers to beat the Dockers.
The three highest MADs within the Margin Predictors belong to C_Marg (6.4 points per game), Bookie_3 (6.3) and MoSSBODS_Marg (6.0), and the two equal-smallest belong to Bookie_LPSO and Bookie_9 (2.2 points per game).
On a game-by-game basis, the highest MAD belongs to the Gold Coast v Adelaide clash where it's 7.7 points per Predictor and where the range of forecasts spans five goals from a 22- to a 52-point Crows win.
C_Prob and MoSSBODS_Prob have the round-high MADs amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, their 5.1% points per game figure not quite double those of the three bookmaker-based Predictors.
The Gold Coast v Adelaide game also has a relatively high MAD (5.8% points per Predictor) for this group of Predictors, but that for the Port Adelaide v West Coast game is higher (6.9% points).
In none of the games, however, is there the situation where some of the Predictors have assessed the home team's probability at below 50% while others have assessed it above 50%.
MoSSBODS DETAILS
Again this week, MoSSBODS has eight of the nine home teams benefiting from the venue at which they're playing. Six of those teams enjoy the Interstate Effect of +3 Scoring Shots (SS), and for three of them that Effect is what makes their Net Venue Effect positive.
MoSSBODS foresees the Gold Coast v Adelaide game producing over 200 points, making it the high-scoring game of the round, and foresees the GWS v Western Bulldogs game as producing only 156 points, making it the low-scoring game of the round.
The Western Bulldogs are expected to score the fewest points this weekend, generating just 69 points in their game, while Adelaide are expected to be the high-scoring team, generating 115 points. Geelong (111) and Melbourne (104) are the only other teams that MoSSBODS expects to break 100 points.
