2015 - Team Ratings After Round 23
/At the end of the 2015 Home-and-Away Season, ChiPS Ranks seven of the eight Finalists amongst its Top 8 teams, the odd one out being the Dogs, which it Ranks 9th, preferring Port Adelaide for 8th spot.
MARS has the same idea, preferring Port Adelaide over the Dogs too, but thinks even more highly of Port Adelaide, Ranking them as high as 6th.
Both Systems also agree that Hawthorn and West Coast enter the Finals as the two highest-Rated teams, and that Fremantle Ranks only 5th. ChiPS, as already noted, Ranks the Western Bulldogs only 9th, while MARS Ranks them 10th.
ChiPS arrived at its final opinion after re-Ranking three teams on the weekend, one of them the Dogs, which it dropped one place into that 9th spot. It also slipped Collingwood down one notch into 10th allowing it to elevate Port Adelaide two places into 8th.
MARS took a more Cabinet reshuffle approach to team Ratings, changing the Ministerial appointments for one half of the teams. Still, the only multi-spot movers were Port Adelaide (up 2 into 6th), Melbourne (up 2 into 14th), and St Kilda (down 2 into 16th).
At the end of it all though, despite MARS' multiple changes and ChiPS' few,, the correlation between their Team Rankings remains high at +0.977, as does the correlation between their Team Ratings, which sits at at +0.976.
Looking across the entire Home-and-Away season, ChiPS and MARS also broadly agree about the big improvers and big decliners.
In Ranking terms, the big climbers are:
- West Coast (up 4 places on ChiPS, 6 on MARS)
- Western Bulldogs (up 5 places on ChiPS, 4 on MARS)
- GWS (up 5 places on ChiPS, 4 on MARS)
- Melbourne (up 3 places on ChiPS, 4 on MARS)
Richmond also climbed, but only on MARS, where it rose by 5 places, bringing it more into alignment with ChiPS' start-of-season and end-of-season view.
The teams falling most were:
- Port Adelaide (down 3 places on ChiPS and 3 on MARS)
- Geelong (down 2 places on ChiPS and 4 on MARS)
- Essendon (down 6 places on ChiPS and 3 on MARS)
- Carlton (down 7 places on ChiPS and 6 on MARS)
In Rating Points (RPs) terms, the big gainers on ChiPS were West Coast (+22.5), Western Bulldogs (+21.1) and Richmond (+14.6), while the big losers were Carlton (-30.3), Essendon (-26.7), and Gold Coast (-16.0).
MARS also has West Coast (+37.5) and Richmond (+23.3) amongst its top three RP gainers but also has Hawthorn (+30.0). Carlton (-42.7) and Essendon (-32.7) also appear in its three biggest RP losers, but it has the Lions (-31.7) just ahead of the Gold Coast (-29.6).
COLLEY, MASSEY AND ODM
Next let's take a look at Colley, Massey and ODM Team Rankings.
Colley was quite circumspect this week, changing the Ranking of only four teams and none by more than a single place. That left it with Rankings almost identical to the competition ladder, the only differences being that Colley Ranks Carlton 17th and the Brisbane Lions 18th while the competition ladder has them the other way around, and Colley Ranks Sydney 3rd and Hawthorn 4th, while the ladder also has them ordered the other way. The final Colley Rankings are thus correlated +0.996 with the competition ladder.
Massey was, again this week, keener for some re-Ranking, switching eight teams, but also none by more than a single place. Its Ranking differs from the competition ladder ordering for nine of the teams - most notably for the Minor Premiers, Fremantle, which it Ranks 4th - leaving it correlated +0.979 with the competition ladder.
ODM was the week's most fervid re-Ranker, altering the positions of 12 teams, though it too could find no reason to do more than nudge teams up or down a spot. Remarkably, at the end of all that reshuflling, it finishes the season with exactly the same team ordering as Massey.
ODM and Massey therefore finish the season with the highest rank correlation of any pair of our Rating Systems, while Colley and MARS finish with the lowest rank correlation (+0.936).
ODM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE RANKINGS
As we go into the Finals, ODM Ranks the eight Finalists as follows:
- Fremantle - 1st on Defence, 10th on Offence
- West Coast - 3rd on Defence, 2nd on Offence
- Hawthorn - 4th on Defence, 1st on Offence
- Sydney - 2nd on Defence, 7th on Offence
- Richmond - 5th on Defence, 9th on Offence
- Western Bulldogs - 8th on Defence, 3rd on Offence
- Adelaide - 7th on Defence, 4th on Offence
- Kangaroos - 12th on Defence, 5th on Offence
In total then, we have seven of the eight highest ODM-Ranked Defensive teams (we're missing Geelong, Ranked 6th), and we have six of the eight highest ODM-Ranked Offensive teams (we're missing Port Adelaide, Ranked 6th, and Collingwood, Ranked 8th).
MoSSBOD, which has broadly similar views to ODM, would offer the following opinions about each of the Finalists:
- Fremantle - 5th on Defence, 13th on Offence
- West Coast - 2nd on Defence, 1st on Offence
- Hawthorn - 3rd on Defence, 2nd on Offence
- Sydney - 4th on Defence, 6th on Offence
- Richmond - 1st on Defence, 7th on Offence
- Western Bulldogs - 6th on Defence, 5th on Offence
- Adelaide - 10th on Defence, 3rd on Offence
- Kangaroos - 12th on Defence, 4th on Offence
It would have it that we're missing Geelong (7th) and Port Adelaide (8th) from the eight best teams on Defence, and only Port Adelaide (8th) from the eight best teams on Offence.
The rank correlations between MoSSBOD's and ODM's Team Rankings now stand at:
- Defensive Rankings: +0.928 (down from +0.938)
- Offensive Rankings: +0.944 (no change)
- Combined Rankings: +0.928 (down from +0.955)
Fremantle and, to a lesser extent, Richmond (on Defence) remain the only teams about whose Rankings the two Systems substantively disagree.
PREDICTIVE ACCURACY
All of the Systems were equally accurate this week, which means that the final placings for the season are:
- ChiPS
- MARS (-2)
- ODM (-10)
- Massey and ODM - Offensive (-12)
- ODM - Defensive (-18)
- Colley (-22)
Partly on the basis of the results here and similar ones last year, I'm not planning to track Massey and Colley again in 2016. I think having ChiPS and MARS as two similar but different ELO-style Team Rating Systems, supplemented by ODM and MoSSBOD providing their own contrasting Offensive and Defensive Team Rating insights, will probably be enough.
FULL ChiPS and MARS TABLE
Here is the table with the complete round-by-round ChiPS and MARS Rating information. Please click on the table for a larger version.
