2015 - Round 12 Results: Still Digging

Another week with just a single head-to-head collect and a blank sheet in the line market delivered Investors one more set of unprofitable wagers, this week made worse by the ramping up of the Line Fund wager size. What's more, the lone successful wager was one of the weekend's two rounding error wagers, so the gross profit from it was almost non-existent.

All told, the Head-to-Head Fund shed another 2.7c to leave it down by almost 14c on the season, while the Line Fund jettisoned another 10c to leave it down by just over 25c since the cruise commenced. Combined, that meant a loss for the round of just over 7c, which values the Overall Portfolio now at just 79.3c per $1 share.

I should probably be grateful the Funds are only getting a look at six games a week at the moment.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There were three upsets, according to the TAB, in the weekend's six games, and none of the Head-to-Head Tipsters could muster better than a four from six performance, that score being achieved by Combo_NN1 and Combo_NN2 alone. That performance allowed these two Tipsters to move fractionally up the MatterOfStats ladder, Combo_NN2 moving into joint-7th, and Combo_NN1 into joint-9th where it now sits level with the Official MoS Head-to-Head Tipster, Win_7.

The H2H family and four of the Heuristic Tipsters fared worst this week, tipping only two winners, and the all-Tipster average finished at just 2.77 correct tips per Tipster for the round, the third-lowest accuracy rate for a round the season.

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One bright spot on the weekend was the resurgence of the C_Marg Margin Predictor, its Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 32.5 points per game the best of all the Predictors and enough to propel it back into top spot on the MoS Ladder, a position it's not held since Round 9.

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The two RSMP and two ENS Predictors remain well within range, however, none of them trailing C_Marg by more than 35 points. Even Combo_7, MoS' Official Margin Predictor, is less than 40 points behind.

C_Marg is still doing remarkably well on line betting too with a 59% success rate for the season, the highest of all Predictors and making it one of only three Predictors with a season-long profit-making record. If only the Line Fund were taking notice ...

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, C_Marg's equivalent, C_Prob, also enjoyed a relatively successful week, its -0.18 bits per game log probability score representing the best by any Predictor in a sea of negative probability scores. The weekend's all-Predictor average of -0.30 bits per game was the lowest average for any round this season.

Despite C_Marg's best-in-class performance, it remains fourth on the MoS Leaderboard, the top three positions still occupied by Bookie-OE, Bookie-RE and Bookie-LPSO in that order.

The Line Fund algorithm also recorded a negative probability score for the round, its second in three weeks and its ninth of the season. It now has a 46 and 56 record for the season as a whole, which includes a 15 and 26 record for the games in which the Line Fund has wagered.