2015 - Round 9 : A Little More Action

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It's Round 9 and we've already spotted the TAB bookmaker 10c headstart, 6.5c more than we'd surrendered to him at the same point last season, so it's arguably not a bad thing to find ourselves with a little more action this week. We've four wagers in the head-to-head market and four more in the line market that, together, constitute 8.5% of original funds, the highest single-round wagering we've seen since Round 1.

Those eight bets span seven of the weekend's fixtures, Richmond the only team deemed worthy of a wager in two markets. Consequently, a win by them by four points or more would add over 2c to the value of the Overall Portfolio, while a loss of any size would strip 2.5c away.

The Tigers are the Head-to-Head Fund's largest wager this week and its only bet on a favourite, the three other wagers being for amounts ranging from 0.9c to 1.5c at prices ranging from $2.10 to $3.55. Each of these bets represent upside of about 1c and downside of about half that much.

In the other market, all four line bets are on favourites. Amongst the four favoured teams, Richmond is carrying the smallest handicap, giving its opponent, Essendon, just 3.5 points start, while both Sydney and Hawthorn are expected to overcome 10 goal or greater starts. West Coast, who carry the fourth and final line wager, have a handicap somewhere in the middle and must win by 16 points or more to provide a return to Investors.

The best possible results in all seven wagered-upon games would drag the Overall Portfolio up by 8.6c, while the worst possible set of results would drag it down by 8.5c.

HEAD-TO-HEAD TIPSTERS

It's another week of generally low levels of disagreement amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, though the average Disagreement Index at 16% is slightly higher than last week's 13%. The cantankerous Home Sweet Home is, as usual, the Tipster most contrarian, this week with an Index of 37%, while Easily Impressed I is also a familiar sight in the runner-up position at 35%.

Not all that far behind are Shadow (27%), Silhouette (27%), C_Marg (26%) and Easily Impressed II (26%). The low Index of 9% is attached to the three ProPred Tipsters and the two ENS Tipsters.

In only two games is there unanimous support for the favourites, and this for the two shortest-priced of them in the Swans and the Hawks. Fremantle, the third shortest-priced favourites miss out on unanimous support only because of Home Sweet Home's unstinting devotion to home teams.

Next, Port Adelaide, GWS, Richmond, Collingwood and West Coast all have between 24 and 26 of the Tipsters foreseeing their success, which leaves the Brisbane Lions as the only team about which there is considerable debate. Their victory is predicted by 16 Tipsters, including the Bookmaker, but their defeat by 14 others.

Combo_7 has this week, unlike its co-leaders BKB and Bookie_3, tipped the underdog Kangaroos to defeat the Pies and will therefore, should the Roos win, claim outright leadership on the MatterOfStats Head-to-Head Tipster competition.

MARGIN PREDICTION

As the Head-to-Head Tipsters, the Margin Predictors are this week still broadly in agreement though just a little less so than they were last week. The overall MAD of 5.8 points per game per Predictor is the fourth-lowest this season and about 0.4 points per game per Predictor less than last week's figure.

C_Marg is the week's most contrarian Predictor, its MAD of 11.6 points per game almost a full point higher than Combo_NN1's and a point and a half higher than Combo_NN2's. At the other extreme is Bookie_9, whose MAD of 2.5 points per game is the smallest of all Predictors, though just a smidge below RSMP_Weighted's 2.6 points per game.

C_Marg, which currently leads all MoS Predictors on the Ladder, is most different from all other Predictors in its opinions in six games:

  • Hawthorn v Gold Coast where it predicts an 82-point Hawks win
  • Melbourne v Port Adelaide where it predicts a 24-point Port Adelaide win
  • Western Bulldogs v GWS where it predicts an 8-point Dogs win
  • Richmond v Essendon where it predicts a 16-point Essendon win
  • Adelaide v Fremantle where it predicts a 4-point Dockers win
  • West Coast v Geelong where it predicts a 33-point West Coast win

Across the games, the Hawthorn v Gold Coast matchup has generated the highest levels of contention about the final margin, the MAD of 12.5 points per Predictor exacerbated most by C_Marg's 82-point margin prediction and Combo_NN2's 18-point margin prediction. No other game has a double-digit MAD.

The lowest MAD is associated with the Melbourne v Port Adelaide game where all 19 Predictors favour a Port Adelaide win and the all-Predictor MAD is just 2.3 points per Predictor.

PROBABILITY PREDICTORS

This week sees the lowest level of general disagreement amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the 4.6% points per game per Predictor slightly less than last week's 4.8% points. The most divergent Predictor is C_Prob, whose MAD of 7.8% points per game is largely a result of its assessments for:

  • The Western Bulldogs (58%), the next highest Predictor's being 50%
  • Richmond (33%), the next lowest Predictor's being 55%
  • Adelaide (45%), the next highest Predictor's being 35%

The round's lowest MAD belongs to WinPred, this week being the first time all season that this Predictor has recorded the smallest MAD of all Predictors.

On a game-by-game basis, the Lions v Saints game has generated the largest MAD, its 8.7% points per Predictor just slightly ahead of the 8.5% for the Tigers v Dons game. The round's lowest MAD is in the Swans v Blues game where it's a remarkable 0.9% per Predictor.

In the line market, the Line Fund algorithm has assessed three teams as having greater than 60% chances: Sydney (68%), Hawthorn (66%), and West Coast (63%). Only one other team has an assessed probability above 53%: the Brisbane Lions, which the algorithm assesses as 59% chances.

TIPSTER AND PREDICTOR DISAGREEMENT

Again this week I'll post the chart showing the week-by-week indexes of disagreement without much comment except to note that:

  • ENS_Linear and ENS_Greedy have the smallest week-average Disagreement Index amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors (11%), and Home Sweet Home has the highest (41%)
  • Bookie_9 has the smallest average MAD amongst the Margin Predictors (2.7 points per game), and C_Marg has the largest (10.0 points per game)
  • Bookie-LPSO has the smallest average MAD amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors (4.9% points per game) and C_Prob has the largest (8.7% points per game)