2015 - Round 8 Results: Pies Hotter Than the Suns; ChiPS Also Still Hot

Saturday's results made sure that the weekend was not going to be a profitable one for Investors, and Sunday evening's twin upsets precluded the possibility of stunning returns for any of the MoS Tipsters or Predictors.

Were it not for Fremantle's comfortable win over the Roos on Saturday, Investors would have suffered a collection-free weekend after the two earlier head-to-head bets on the Saints and the Hawks, and the earlier line bet on the Suns, had all proven to be ill-advised. The Head-to-Head Fund's losses for the weekend amounted to 2.7c, leaving that Fund now in deficit by 10.5c.

The Line Fund also lost money despite the success of its Fremantle flutter, but in its case the loss was only 0.3c, which leaves that Fund down by 9.6c on the season and leaves the Overall Portfolio down by 10c. That performance, while not Malthousian, is possibly Scottesque or even a little worse.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Sunday's upset wins for the Dees and the Tigers, coupled with Hawthorn's narrow upset win earlier in the round, left just six favourites to take the points this weekend. There was though just enough dissention amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters that the all-Tipster average came in a little higher than that at 6.2 correct tips per Tipster.

Best was Shadow's 8 from 9, which has elevated it into the top position amongst the Heuristic Tipsters, BKB aside, and left it just 5 tips behind the leaders. Those leaders remain BKB, Bookie_3 and Combo_7, all now on 49 from 72 (68%).

View fullsize

Margin Predictor Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were buffeted this week both by the upset results and the magnitude of the wins by some of the favourites, which served to elevate the all-Predictor MAE to 40.8 points per game, the third-highest average for a round this season. C_Marg recorded the week's best MAE, its 35.7 points per game result almost a full point better than Bookie_3's 36.6 points per game.

C_Marg has been the Predictor closest to the actual margin in 13 games so far this, a record bettered by none and matched only by Combo_NN2, which finds itself mid-table on the MoS Tipster Dashboard because its ability to forecast margins close to the actual result has been twinned with an ability to be an awfully long way from the actual result too. While being within a goal of the correct margin in 10% of all games this season, it's also been 3 goals or more in error in 73% of the games.

Four Margin Predictors have profitable line betting records now, C_Marg, ENS_Linear, Bookie_3 and Combo_NN2.

Best amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors this week was WinPred, though this performance was not enough to move it from the bottom rung of the MoS Ladder. Bookie-RE, Bookie-OE, Bookie_LPSO and C_Prob all recorded log probability scores within 0.012 bits per game of each other. In practical terms then it was a four-way tie between them, and the similarity of their scores meant that their positions on the Dashboard remained unchanged.

The Line Fund algorithm had a better round this week than last, but another negative log probability score did nothing to move its season-long performance back towards an average zero score.