2014 - Team Ratings After Round 21

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ChiPS certainly punishes teams that fail to perform as it expects.

After going down by over 11 goals, at home, to a team Rated more than 15 Ratings Points (RPs) lower, there's some justification, I'd contend, to ChiPS' decision to strip 9.5 RPs from the Pies. Given the congested nature of ChiPS Ratings at this point in the season, that deduction dropped Collingwood three places, from 9th to 12th.

That decline was one of only two multi-place declines this week, the other belonging to Melbourne, which fell two places to 17th after going down to GWS, at home, by almost 11 goals. Three other teams - Adelaide, Geelong, and the Western Bulldogs - fell by a single place this week.

No team rose by more than a single place on ChiPS, though eight teams managed to ascend by exactly this amount: the Kangaroos, Richmond, Essendon, West Coast, Carlton, Gold Coast, the Brisbane Lions, and GWS.

Carlton are the only team with any significant momentum in terms of Ratings accumulation having now completed a four-week streak of increases. The Roos, Dockers and Tigers are the only other teams to have strung together back-to-back increases.Momentum in either direction has, in fact, been hard to generate in recent times, with just four other teams having racked up back-to-back losses: the Hawks, Cats, Pies and Suns.

A comparison of ChiPS Rankings to the current competition ladder reveals three teams for whom the differences are greatest:

  • The Kangaroos, Ranked 3rd by ChiPS but who sit 6th on the competition ladder
  • Adelaide, Ranked 4th by ChiPS but who sit 8th on the competition ladder
  • Geelong, Ranked 8th by ChiPS but who sit 2nd on the competition ladder

Comparing, instead, ChiPS' Rankings to those of MARS finds only two teams with significant differences:

  • Adelaide, Ranked 4th by ChiPS but 7th by MARS, and
  • Geelong, Ranked 8th by ChiPS but 4th by MARS

Still it is then that ChiPS and MARS Ratings remain broadly aligned.

Massey and ODM disagree only mildly and rarely with either MARS or ChiPS, and Colley continues to have its own, unique opinion about the merits of many of the teams.

In fact, Colley Ranks six teams at least two places differently than any other Rating System:

  • It Ranks Adelaide 9th, two places lower than any other System
  • It Ranks the Brisbane Lions 13th, two places higher than any other System
  • It Ranks Collingwood 8th, three places higher than any other System
  • It Ranks Essendon 7th, two places higher than any other System
  • It Ranks Geelong 2nd, two places higher than any other System
  • It Ranks West Coast 12th, two places lower than any other System

ChiPS is the only other System that can claim to Rank any team two places or more differently than any other System, though it does this for only three teams:

  • It Ranks Adelaide 4th, three places higher than any other System
  • It Ranks Geelong 8th, three places higher than any other System
  • It Ranks the Kangaroos 3rd, two places higher than any other System

ODM now Ranks five teams more then five places differently in terms of their Offensive capabilities compared to their Defensive capabilities:

  • Adelaide, which it Ranks 12th on Defence and 4th on Offence
  • Carlton, which it Ranks 14th on Defence and 8th on Offence
  • Essendon, which it Ranks 3rd on Defence and 13th on Offence
  • Hawthorn, which it Ranks 8th on Defence and 1st on Offence
  • Melbourne, which it Ranks 11th on Defence and 18th on Offence

Finally, reviewing the simple predictive accuracy of the Rating Systems we find that MARS:

  • Fell a further 1 tip behind ChiPS and now trails by 4 tips
  • Is now 8 tips ahead of the Offensive Component of ODM having tipped one fewer correct result
  • Remains 10 tips ahead of Massey, as it was at the end of Round 20
  • Is now 11 tips ahead of the Defensive Component of ODM having tipped three fewer correct results
  • Is now 13 tips ahead of ODM having tipped one fewer correct result
  • Is now 15 tips ahead of Colley having tipped two fewer correct results

In summary, MARS continues to be a reliable source of predictions with ChiPS rapidly becoming a viable alternative.