2014 - Round 12 : A Dozen Rounds, A Dozen Wagers

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The Margin Fund has responded this week to our reduction in its bet size by increasing the number of wagers that it's demanded we make - 12 in all on 6 separate games, representing 12% of the Fund and almost 2.5% of the entire Portfolio. Like a true retailer, the Fund's compensated for a reduction in price by ramping up volume.

The Head-to-Head Fund has been far more circumspect, venturing just a single wager on the Gold Coast to spring the upset on the Swans, an event that's priced at $4. Meantime the Line Fund has taken something of a middle course - less manic than the Margin Fund but less sedate than the Head-to-Head Fund - anointing four teams as worthy of its attention (and our money), including three favourites and one underdog.

Based on its historically ept performance in this part of the season, the Line Fund has been granted bets of considerable substance from now until the end of Round 18, so its four wagers this week represent 20% of the Fund and 10% of our entire initial Portfolio.

All told, Investors have 17 bets across the 9 games, which total a record 13% of the Portfolio at risk.

The number, variety and slightly unusual configuration of Margin and Line wagers this week has resulted in a Ready Reckoner that resembles the paperclip collection of a bored Executive at the southern end of a day full of meetings. The chart for the Hawthorn v West Coast game is especially amusing, looking as it does as though hewn in considerable tedium.

For all of its contortions though, that game represents neither the maximum upside nor the maximum downside for the round. Extreme upside rests with the Suns, who can realise it by emerging victorious over the in-form Swans, a result that would add over 4c to the price of the Recommended Portfolio. A Hawthorn win by between 40 and 49 points promises the next highest return (3.4c), while a Roos win by between 22 and 29 points promises almost as much (3.3c). 

Gold Coast can also bring about the largest decline in the Recommended Portfolio, a result they could trigger by going down to the Swans by more than 25 points. That would shave just over 3c off the Portfolio price. Almost as much would be lost if Hawthorn were to win by less than 20 points (or by exactly 30 points, which surely would be grounds for giving this wagering thing away); if Port Adelaide were to win by 29 points or less, or by 40 to 49 points; or if the Kangaroos were to win by less than 22 points.

In aggregate, a dream round would add over 16c to the price of the Recommended Portfolio while a nightmare round would subtract over 13c. So, to give a sporting cliche (or two) a run, there's a bit to play for ... 

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

While wagering levels are at historical highs, disagreement levels amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters are at historical lows, with only the Dogs v Lions game eliciting any more than a pair of dissenting voices. Amongst the 9 games the Tipsters are unanimous in their support for Port Adelaide and the Kangaroos, and prevented only by Home Sweet Home in adopting a similar stance towards Essendon and Collingwood. In one other game, Shadow's siding with the Crows is the only thing preventing a clean sweep of support for Fremantle. 

Home Sweet Home is the major dissenting voice yet again this week, with a Disagreement Index of 37%, a comfortable distance ahead of Shadow (26%), STM I, STM II and EI I (all 23%). Most Tipsters, as you can see, have the very low Disagreement Index of 6%, meaning that there's only about a 1-in-16 chance that a randomly chosen Tipster would disagree with them in a randomly chosen game.

The Margin Predictors are even more united, each selecting the same winner in every contest. What's more, single-digit margin predictions appear only for the Cats v Blues, Dogs v Lions, Suns v Swans, and Roos v Tigers game, and the range of predicted victory margins exceeds 30 points in only 3 contests.

Combo_NN_1's predictions are quantitatively most different from the all-Predictor average, Bookie_3's are next most different, while Bookie_LPSO's are third most different - each of its, on average, only a little more than 7 points distant from the all-Predictor average. RSMP_Weighted is playing the role of Predictor Most Average this week, though RSMP_Simple is not a lot more contrarian.

Turning our attention next to the Probability Predictors we find complete unanimity here too, and probability ranges of less than 25% in every game but one. Only in the Geelong v Carlton game do we see any significant disagreement, the extremes being WinPred's 59% assessment of the Cats' chances compared to C_Prob's 89%.

C_Prob's assessments are, on average, most distant from the all-Predictor average this week, though a MAD of 6.6% points per game hardly constitutes screaming defiance. The H2H pair's assessments are next most distant at just under 6% points per game, and ProPred's assessments are least distant from the all-Predictor average, coming in with a MAD of just 3.5% points per game.

ChiPS PREDICTIONS

ChiPS' margin predictions are, once again, heavily correlated with its assessment of Team Ratings, the correlation between the two this week coming in at +0.97.

It's interesting to note though that, in five of the games, the team with the higher Rating has weaker form (Geelong, Hawthorn, the Dogs, the Roos and the Pies each having higher Ratings but poorer recent form)

Only two teams are deemed by ChiPS as being worthy of a wager given their current TAB prices: GWS at $5.70 facing the Dons, and Gold Coast (barely) at $4 facing the Swans.