MAFL 2010 : Round 18

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If the Recommended Portfolio is to make a bid for profitability I've a feeling that this weekend needs to be the start of it.

That Portfolio has 24 wagers this weekend totalling just a little under one quarter of the Fund. As is becoming customary, New Heritage has the majority of the action, this week putting almost one half of its Fund in play on 5 wagers at an average price of $1.39, chief amongst them 12.5% wagers on the Pies and the Dogs who are both at $1.15 this week at home facing the Blues and the Roos respectively.

Five more wagers have come from ELO-Line totalling one quarter of its Fund. Three of them are on underdogs and the other two are on favourites. Another five bets are due to Prudence, whose banker's half-dozen total just over one sixth of the Fund. The average price for these wagers is $1.37 and the largest is for 6.5% of the Fund on the Dogs at $1.15.

Hope has placed three more bets and has also put about one sixth of its Fund at risk, though it's done so at the high average price of $3.27. Its largest wager is on Port and is for 6.1% of the Fund at $3.15. I do hope that Port haven't already had their rank underdog, at home win for the season.

Shadow and Heuristic-Based have each made three wagers, the same wagers in fact, totalling 15% of each Fund. The riskiest amongst them is for 5% on Fremantle at $1.35.

MIN#002 has the three Hope bets this week and the long-suffering MIN#017 has the five New Heritage wagers and once again faces oblivion should there be a series of unfortunate outcomes.

Here's the detail: 

For the Recommended Portfolio, the Swans v Cats game carries the highest upside (4.3%), the Dogs v Roos game the greatest downside (5.3%), and the Pies v Blues game carries the greatest potential swing between upside and downside (6.7%).

MIN#002 has most to gain and faces the largest potential swing from the Freo v Eagles game (1.8%), while MIN#017 can profit most from the Lions v Dees game (6%), can lose most from the Pies v Blues and Dogs v Roos matchups (12.5%), and faces the greatest potential swing from the Freo v Eagles game (14.9%).

Which brings us to the week's Ready Reckoner, which is far more balanced this week for those with the Recommended Portfolio (and, by now, you know how much more I like balance):

Even if the first three games fail to produce the correct result the Recommended Portfolio still has a shot at a profitable weekend.

Unanimity - or very close to it - is the MAFL Tipsters' view of half the weekend's contests. Two more games have an 80:20 split, and the other two are split 66:33 and 60:40.

Here are the details:

  • St Kilda are 10-5 favourites over the Dons. All five Margin Tippers predict a Saints victory by margins ranging from 9 to 30.5 points, but four of the top 5 MAFL tipsters side with the Dons, ELO being the only holdout.
  • Collingwood are unanimous favourites over the Blues, with the Margin Tippers predicting Pies victories by between 20 and 40 points.
  • Hawthorn are 12-3 favourites over Port. All five MAFL Tipsters are predicting a Hawks victory by margins ranging between 5 and 19 points. Chi and LAMP both tip the Hawks to win by just 5 points, making this their respective Games of the Round (in Chi's case, one of two such games). The Top 5 tipsters are split 3-2 to the Hawks.
  • Geelong are 14-1 favourites over Sydney, the Margin Tippers unanimous in their support of the Cats and foreseeing a Cats victory by between 9 and 27 points. All of the Top 5 tipsters also predict a Cats victory.
  • Melbourne are 9-6 favourites over the Lions, though the five Margin Tippers are all supporting the Lions. ELO tips the Lions by 2 points, making this its Game of the Round, which it also is for BKB. All of the Top 5 tipsters excepting ELO side with the Dees.
  • Adelaide are 12-3 favourites over Richmond, though the Margin Tippers are split 3-2, also in favour of the Crows. Chi tips Richmond by 5 points, making this his other Game of the Round, and HAMP tips Adelaide by 3 points, making this its only Game of the Round. The Top 5 tipsters are unanimous in their support for the Crows.
  • The Dogs are unanimous favourites over the Roos, with the Margin Tippers predicting victory margins of between 25 and 49 points.
  • Fremantle are 14-1 favourites over the Eagles. Again, the Margin Tippers are unanimous. They predict Freo wins of between 18 and 31 points. Amongst the Top 5 tipsters, only Easily Impressed I believes that the Eagles can produce the upset.

The Super Smart Model this week agrees with four of the five ELO wagers and disagrees with the fifth - Collingwood to cover 32.5 points start - by just half a point. Here's its view of the round:

For the season to date, SSM has tipped the winning team 65.5% of the time and the correct line winner 54.4% of the time.

The Bookie Probability Model this week sees value in three of the contests and recommends a 4.2% wager on Port, a 9.1% wager on Sydney, and a 19.2% wager on Fremantle.

HELP has predicted five away team wins on line betting and three home team wins: