MAFL 2010 : Round 13 - Part II

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Even with two attractive-looking matchups in the Cats v Saints and Swans v Pies games, this weekend can't help but seem like the stale bit of the loaf that is Round 13. (Apologies if you're a Melbourne or Adelaide fan, but I'm finding it hard to get enthused about 13th v 15th.)

The weekend's status might be elevated though if the Cats, Swans and Dees all wins, the Cats doing so by 21 points or more, since then the Recommended Portfolio will rise by about 3.9% more than offsetting, if barely, the losses suffered last weekend.

Rooting for an away team victory, which all Investors except MIN#002 will be doing this weekend in the Crows v Dees game, is a relative rarity for Investors since all but the New Heritage Fund are permitted to wager only on home teams. This week, New Heritage's splurge on the Dees is sufficiently bold to induce broad Investor support for the travellers.

The Cats, by the way, as far as MAFL is concerned are the home team in their game, since it's being played at the MCG, one of the Cats' MAFL-designated home grounds this season and not one of the Saints'.

All told, Investors holding the Recommended Portfolio have 10 wagers totalling about 9% of Total Funds this week.

MIN#002's happiness rests solely in the hands of the Crows, who need only to win to produce a profit for his portfolio, and MIN#017 shares the hopes and dreams of Recommended Portfolio holders in that he wants the Cats, Swans and Dees to win. In his case though, the size of the Cats' victory is immaterial.

Here's the detail:

For the Recommended Portfolio, the Cats v St Kilda game represents the greatest potential profit and the greatest potential loss.

For MIN#017 the Adelaide v Melbourne game is the one filled with equal parts promise and pain, while MIN#002, as already noted, has a stake in only one contest.

Here's the Ready Reckoner detail:

On tipping this week, no team has the support of more than 80% of tipsters.

Here are the details:

  • Geelong are the week's most supported favourites. Twelve of the fifteen tipsters are predicting that they will prevail. The Margin Tipsters, Chi aside, reckon that the Cats should win by about 3.5 to 4 goals. Ride Your Luck is the best-credentialled amongst the minority plumping for a Saints victory.
  • Collingwood are 10-5 favourites over the Swans, though none of the Margin Tipsters predicts a double-digit victory margin for either side.
  • Adelaide are 10-5 favourites over Melbourne. If you're an Adelaide fan you might take comfort from the fact that the Margin Tippers have the Crows winning by between 8.5 and 27 points; if you're a Melbourne fan you might, instead, note that Easily Impressed I and Short-Term Memory I - currently joint-leaders of our tipping competition - are both tipping a Dees victory.

HELP produced a 3 from 5 performance last weekend, reviving some hope that publishing its forecasts won't continue to feel so futile. Here are its remaining predictions for the round: