Below is the latest Ranking on Dashboard Metrics table, which shows that the teams currently in the Top 8 mostly deserve to be there based on the metrics shown here (note that I order teams based firstly on the percentage of available competition points they have accrued and then on percentage).

The metrics currently most rank correlated with ladder position are:

• MoS Win Production Function: +0.92

• Percent of Quarters Won: +0.85

• Own Scoring Shots per Game: +0.84

• Own Points per Game: +0.82

• Own Goals per Game: +0.8

• Opponent Goals per Game: +0.78

• Opponent Points per Game: +0.77

Those least rank correlated with ladder position are:

• Q1 Performances: +0.46

• Q2 Performances: +0.49

With the teams having only played between 2 and 4 games so far in the home and away season, it’s still a little early to be calling out specific team statistics in the Ranking on Dashboard Metrics table, which appears below.

Note once again that I order teams based firstly on the percentage of available competition points they have accrued and then on percentage. The only thing I would note at this point is the fairly close correspondence between the ordering of the teams that I achieve using that approach, and what we get from the MoS Win Production Function, even with such scant data.

It’s way too early to make anything meaningful from the numbers but, to get you accustomed to what you’ll see during the home and away season, here is, firstly, the Ranking on Dashboard Metrics table.

(Note that I order teams based firstly on the percentage of available competition points they have accrued and then on percentage)

It’s way too early to make anything meaningful from the numbers but, to get you accustomed to what you’ll see during the home and away season, here is, firstly, the Ranking on Dashboard Metrics table.

(Note that I order teams based firstly on the percentage of available competition points they have accrued and then on percentage)

The final Rankings on Dashboard Metrics graphic for 2024 appears below, and reveals that team rankings on the following metrics are most highly correlated with ladder position:

• Percent of Quarters Won (+0.95)

• Q3 Performances (+0.91)

• Own Points per Game (+0.89)

• MoS Win Production Function Expected Wins (+0.89)

• Own Goals per Game (+0.86)

• Own Scoring Shots per Game (+0.85)

• Q1 Performances (+0.73)

Least highly correlated are:

• Own Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.12)

• Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.41)

The latest Rankings on Dashboard Metrics graphic appears below, and reveals that team rankings on the following metrics are most highly correlated with ladder position:

• Percent of Quarters Won (+0.95)

• Q3 Performances (+0.92)

• Own Points per Game (+0.89)

• MoS Win Production Function Expected Wins (+0.87)

• Own Goals per Game (+0.85)

• Own Scoring Shots per Game (+0.85)

Least highly correlated are:

• Own Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.11)

• Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.4)

The latest Rankings on Dashboard Metrics graphic appears below, and reveals that team rankings on the following metrics are most highly correlated with ladder position:

• Percent of Quarters Won (+0.94)

• Q3 Performances (+0.89)

• MoS Win Production Function Expected Wins (+0.88) - back in the Top 3, where it should be!

• Own Points per Game (+0.86)

• Own Goals per Game (+0.83)

• Own Scoring Shots per Game (+0.82)

Least highly correlated are:

• Own Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.07)

• Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.40)

It’s very much been about generating scoring shots this season.

The latest Rankings on Dashboard Metrics graphic appears below, and reveals that team rankings on the following metrics are most highly correlated with ladder position:

• Percent of Quarters Won (+0.94)

• Own Scoring Shots per Game (+0.9)

• MoS Win Production Function Expected Wins (+0.89)

• Own Points per Game (+0.88)

• Own Goals per Game (+0.88)

• Q3 Performances (+0.87)

• Q1 Performances (+0.75)

Least highly correlated are:

• Own Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.08)

• Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.41)

The latest Rankings on Dashboard Metrics graphic appears below, and reveals that team rankings on the following metrics are most highly correlated with ladder position:

• Percent of Quarters Won (+0.92)

• Own Points per Game (+0.92)

• MoS Win Production Function Expected Wins (+0.9)

• Own Scoring Shots per Game (+0.9)

• Own Goals per Game (+0.89)

• Q3 Performances (+0.79)

• Q1 Performances (+0.74)

Least highly correlated are:

• Own Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.17)

• Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.46)

• Q4 Performances (+0.49)

Death, taxes, and the ultimately highly predictive nature of the MoS Win Production Function.

The latest Rankings on Dashboard Metrics graphic appears below, and reveals that team rankings on the following metrics are most highly correlated with ladder position:

• Percent of Quarters Won (+0.86)

• Own Goals per Game (+0.86)

• Own Scoring Shots per Game (+0.85)

• Own Points per Game (+0.84)

• MoS Win Production Function Expected Wins (+0.84)

• Q1 Performances (+0.73)

• Q3 Performances (+0.7)

Least highly correlated are:

• Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.3)

• Own Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.31)

• Opponent Points per Game (+0.4)

• Q2 Performances (+0.43)

• Opponent Goals per Game (+0.43)

• Q4 Performances (+0.44)

• Opponent Scoring Shots per Game (+0.5)

There remains quite a bit of orange amongst teams in the Top 8 on the ladder, and quite a bit of green amongst teams outside the Top 8 (in particular the Western Bulldogs).

The latest Rankings on Dashboard Metrics graphic appears below, and reveals that team rankings on the following metrics are most highly correlated with ladder position:

• Percent of Quarters Won (+0.86)

• Own Goals per Game (+0.86)

• Own Scoring Shots per Game (+0.85)

• Own Points per Game (+0.84)

• MoS Win Production Function Expected Wins (+0.84)

• Q1 Performances (+0.73)

• Q3 Performances (+0.7)

Least highly correlated are:

• Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.3)

• Own Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.31)

• Opponent Points per Game (+0.4)

• Q2 Performances (+0.43)

• Opponent Goals per Game (+0.43)

• Q4 Performances (+0.44)

• Opponent Scoring Shots per Game (+0.5)

There remains quite a bit of orange amongst teams in the Top 8 on the ladder, and quite a bit of green amongst teams outside the Top 8 (in particular the Western Bulldogs).

The latest Rankings on Dashboard Metrics graphic appears below, and reveals that team rankings on the following metrics are most highly correlated with ladder position:

• Own Scoring Shots per Game (+0.85)

• Percent of Quarters Won (+0.8)

• Own Points per Game (+0.78)

• Own Goals per Game (+0.76)

• MoS Win Production Function Expected Wins (+0.75)

• Q1 Performances (+0.73)

• Q3 Performances (+0.6)

• Opponent Scoring Shots per Game (+0.53)

Least highly correlated are:

• Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.2)

• Own Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.22)

• Q2 Performances (+0.37)

• Opponent Goals per Game (+0.39)

• Opponent Points per Game (+0.4)

• Q4 Performances (+0.46)

The varying correlational results for performances in the different quarters is interesting if hard to provide a sensible rationale for: Q1 and Q3 performances have been far more important than Q2 and Q4 performances, it seems.

The latest Rankings on Dashboard Metrics graphic appears below, and reveals that team rankings on the following metrics are most highly correlated with ladder position:

• Own Scoring Shots per Game (+0.84)

• Own Points per Game (+0.81)

• Own Goals per Game (+0.8)

• Percent of Quarters Won (+0.78)

• MoS Win Production Function Expected Wins (+0.76)

Least highly correlated are:

• Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.23)

• Own Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.27)

• Opponent Goals per Game (+0.28)

• Opponent Points per Game (+0.33)

• Q2 Performances (+0.4)

The Conceded Scoring per Game section of the dashboard is especially notable in that, for both metrics, teams ranked in the bottom 8 represent the majority of teams in the Top 8 on the competition ladder.

Although it’s not entirely true to say that the sole criterion for success this season has been offensive ability, offence has clearly been more important than defence.

The latest Rankings on Dashboard Metrics graphic appears below, and reveals that team rankings on the following metrics are most highly correlated with ladder position (which, thankfully, can now be created without adjustment):

• Own Points per Game (+0.78)

• Percent of Quarters Won (+0.7)

• Own Scoring Shots per Game (+0.75)

• Own Goals per Game (+0.72)

Least highly correlated are:

• Own Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.22)

• Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.26)

• Opponent Points per Game (+0.37)

• Q2 Performances (+0.38)

• Opponent Goals per Game (+0.4)

• Q4 Performances (+0.48)

• Opponent Scoring Shots per Game (+0.49)

The only metrics for which the Top 8 teams on the competition ladder are in the Top for the metric are Q3 Performances, and Percent of Quarters Won.

The latest Rankings on Dashboard Metrics graphic appears below, and reveals that team rankings on the following metrics are most highly correlated with ladder position (which, once again is determined firstly by percentage of possible competition points accumulated, and then by percentage):

• Percent of Quarters Won (+0.83)

• Own Goals per Game (+0.76)

• Own Scoring Shots per Game (+0.75)

• Own Points per Game (+0.75)

• Q3 Performances (+0.73)

Least highly correlated are:

• Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.14)

• Own Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.29)

• Opponent Points per Game (+0.32)

• Opponent Goals per Game (+0.36)

• Q2 Performances (+0.37)

• Opponent Scoring Shots per Game (+0.42)

• Q4 Performances (+0.42)

The latest Rankings on Dashboard Metrics graphic appears below, and reveals that team rankings on the following metrics are most highly correlated with ladder position (which, once again is determined firstly by percentage of possible competition points accumulated, and then by percentage):

• Q3 Performances (+0.81)

• Own Scoring Shots per Game (+0.79)

• Percent of Quarters Won (+0.79)

• Own Points per Game (+0.77)

• Own Goals per Game (+0.74)

Least highly correlated are:

• Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.06)

• Own Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.19)

• Opponent Goals per Game (+0.29)

• Opponent Points per Game (+0.32)

• Opponent Scoring Shots per Game (+0.39)

• Q2 Performances (+0.39)

• Q1 Performances (+0.47)

• Q4 Performances (+0.48)

The fact that only five metrics have correlations above +0.7 and eight have correlations below +0.5 is very revealing about just how different this season is, with teams ranked as low as 17th on some metrics sitting comfortably in the Top 8 on the ladder, and teams in the top 5 on some metrics sitting uncomfortably in the bottom half.

The latest Rankings on Dashboard Metrics graphic appears below, and reveals that team rankings on the following metrics are most highly correlated with ladder position (which, once again is determined firstly by percentage of possible competition points accumulated, and then by percentage):

• Percent of Quarters Won (+0.85)

• Own Points per Game (+0.81)

• Q3 Performances (+0.81)

• Own Goals per Game (+0.81)

• Own Scoring Shots per Game (+0.74)

Least highly correlated are:

• Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.17)

• Own Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.27)

• Opponent Points per Game (+0.34)

• Opponent Goals per Game (+0.35)

• Opponent Scoring Shots per Game (+0.38)

• Q2 Performances (+0.39)

• Q4 Performances (+0.48)

Long-time readers of this Team Dashboard blog will understand just how unusual some of those correlations are, a fact that can possibly be partly explained by the unprecedented similarity in the abilities of many of the teams and the resultant somewhat more random-like nature of the team ladder ordering.

The latest Rankings on Dashboard Metrics graphic appears below, and reveals that team rankings on the following metrics are most highly correlated with ladder position:

• Q3 Performances (+0.88)

• Percent of Quarters Won (+0.85)

• Own Points per Game (+0.75)

• Own Goals per Game (+0.74)

• Expected Wins from MoS Win Production Function (+0.72)

• Own Scoring Shots per Game (+0.7)

Least highly correlated are:

• Own Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.22)

• Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.27)

• Q2 Performances (+0.4)

• Opponent Scoring Shots per Game (+0.43)

• Opponent Goals per Game (+0.49)

The latest Rankings on Dashboard Metrics graphic appears below, and reveals that team rankings on the following metrics are most highly correlated with ladder position:

• Percent of Quarters Won (+0.85)

• Own Goals per Game (+0.79)

• Q3 Performances (+0.78)

• Own Points per Game (+0.76)

• Own Scoring Shots per Game (+0.75)

• Q1 Performances (+0.72)

Least highly correlated are:

• Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.23)

• Own Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.30)

• Opponent Scoring Shots per Game (+0.42)

• Opponent Goals per Game (+0.45)

• Opponent Points per Game (+0.46)

• Q2 Performances (+0.49)

For the first time in as long as I can remember, the MoS Win Production Function rankings are not highly correlated with actual ladder position, and that is largely because the scoring metrics for Essendon, Port Adelaide and Collingwood don’t support their relatively high competition ladder rankings, and the scoring metrics for Western Bulldogs and Brisbane Lions don’t support their relatively low competition ladder rankings.

The latest Rankings on Dashboard Metrics graphic appears below, and reveals that team rankings on the following metrics are most highly correlated with ladder position:

• Percent of Quarters Won (+0.87)

• The MoS Win Production Function (+0.84)

• Own Points per Game (+0.81)

• Own Goals per Game (+0.81)

• Q3 Performances (+0.79)

• Own Scoring Shots per Game (+0.78)

Least highly correlated are:

• Own Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.35)

• Q2 Performances (+0.4)

• Opponent Scoring Shots per Game (+0.41)

• Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.43)

Overall, arguably, the the Western Bulldogs’ and Essendon’s rankings look least congruent with their ladder positions, especially when you look at what the MoS Win Production Function suggests for their expected win rates given their scoring statistics.