MatterOfStats 2024 : Team Dashboard for Round 16

The latest Rankings on Dashboard Metrics graphic appears below, and reveals that team rankings on the following metrics are most highly correlated with ladder position:

  • Own Scoring Shots per Game (+0.84)

  • Own Points per Game (+0.81)

  • Own Goals per Game (+0.8)

  • Percent of Quarters Won (+0.78)

  • MoS Win Production Function Expected Wins (+0.76)

Least highly correlated are:

  • Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.23)

  • Own Scoring Shot Conversion (+0.27)

  • Opponent Goals per Game (+0.28)

  • Opponent Points per Game (+0.33)

  • Q2 Performances (+0.4)

The Conceded Scoring per Game section of the dashboard is especially notable in that, for both metrics, teams ranked in the bottom 8 represent the majority of teams in the Top 8 on the competition ladder.

Although it’s not entirely true to say that the sole criterion for success this season has been offensive ability, offence has clearly been more important than defence.

A review of this table and the detailed Team Dashboard below reveals:

  • Essendon rates no higher than 7th on any Dashboard metric, and is in the bottom half of teams for a majority of metrics

  • The teams with the worst Own Scoring Shot Conversion (Port Adelaide) and worst Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion (Collingwood) are both in the top 8 on the ladder.

  • Western Bulldogs are ranked no lower than 8th on all but one metric (Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion)

The larger Team Dashboard also reveals that:

  • Adelaide’s and Sydney’s opponents have converted at only 48%

  • Geelong, Essendon, and Port Adelaide have won only 40% of Q2s

  • Essendon have generated fewer scoring shots than their opponents have in Q1s and Q2s, and have a sub-100 percentage for Q2s and Q4s

  • Richmond, North Melbourne, and West Coast have been outscored by their opponents in every quarter

  • The only teams to have outscored their opponents in every quarter are Fremantle and Western Bulldogs (with Collingwood missing out by a single point in Q1s from being the third team). They as well as Collingwood are the only teams to have registered more scoring shots than their opponents in all four quarters.

  • Brisbane Lions have converted at only 42% in Q3s

  • Sydney’s opponents have converted at only 35% in Q2s whilst they themselves have converted at 61%

  • Geelong have converted at 66% in Q1s but only 49% in Q2s.

  • Adelaide’s opponents have converted at only 43% in Q4s, and St Kilda’s opponents at just 40%. Gold Coast’s opponents have converted at 65% in Q4s.