MatterOfStats 2020 : Team Dashboard for Round 11

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So, we still have half of the teams in the Top 8 ranked in the bottom 6 for Own Scoring Shot Conversion, and five of them ranked in the bottom 9 for Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion. What a strange year …

Given all that, though, the 10-year-old MoS Win Prediction Function continues to do a good job of predicting team winning percentages as a function of scoring statistics. The rank correlation between its ordering of the teams and that based on the ladder ordering (adjusted for games played) is now at +0.92.

The teams with the largest deviation between expected and actual wins are now:

  • Brisbane Lions +1.3 wins

  • Essendon +1.2 wins

  • Port Adelaide +1.0 wins

  • Adelaide -1.5 wins

  • North Melbourne -1.3 wins

  • Gold Coast -1.1 wins

  • Fremantle - 1.0 wins

In terms of ladder positions, that means that only five teams are ordered by the competition ladder more than two places differently than by expected wins for:

  • Brisbane Lions 4 places higher than expected

  • Essendon 3 places higher than expected

  • Western Bulldogs 3 places higher than expected

  • Fremantle 3 places lower than expected

  • Melbourne 3 places lower than expected

The full Team Dashboard appears below, with Essendon in 9th, which even those of my Twitter followers who beat me up for using Match Ratio can surely no longer complain about.