MatterOfStats 2019 : Team Dashboard for Round 23

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The final table of Rankings on Dashboard Metrics appears below.

There are a number of metrics on which some teams higher on the ladder do surprisingly poorly, and others on which some teams lower on the ladder do surprisingly well, but we’ve covered a number of examples of these in recent weeks, so I’ll leave it to the reader to undertake a final review of these for themselves.

This week, we’ll have one final look at the MoS Win Production Function and what it suggests about how many more or fewer wins teams have recorded relative to what their scoring metrics would suggest they might reasonably have been expected to.

REGISTERED MORE WINS THAN EXPECTED

  • Richmond +2.6

  • St Kilda +2.1

  • Essendon +1.7

  • Brisbane Lions +1.5

  • West Coast +1.1

REGISTERED FEWER WINS THAN EXPECTED

  • Sydney -2.8

  • Hawthorn -1.7

  • Adelaide -1.2

  • Melbourne -1.0

If the teams were ordered based on Expected Wins, the big movers would be:

  • Essendon 5 places lower (13th)

  • Richmond 3 places lower (6th)

  • Sydney 3 places higher (12th)

The final correlations between ladder position and ranking on the relevant metrics reveal that success this season has been more about:

  • offence than defence (correlation of ladder position with ranking on own scoring +0.89, with opponents’ scoring +0.82)

  • generating scoring shots (+0.83) than converting them (+0.57)

  • preventing scoring shots (+0.78) than the rate at which allowed shots have been converted (+0.35)

  • Q1, Q3, and Q4 performances (+0.64 to +0.71) than about Q2 performances (+0.45)

The full Team Dashboard appears below, a few of the interesting features of which are:

  • Five of the teams outside the Top 8 have a better percentage than Essendon

  • Brisbane Lions have a 75% win percentage in Q3s, but only a 50% win percentage in Q1s

  • West Coast have a 41% win percentage in Q2s, and 50% win percentages in Q3s and Q4s. Across all quarters, their record is only 45-1-42.

  • Sydney’s record of 44-4-40 isn’t all that much different to West Coast’s.

  • Amongst the Finalists, Brisbane Lions and Western Bulldogs have been outscored by their opponents in Q1s, Richmond in Q3s, GWS in Q4s, and Essendon in Q1s and in Q2s (and very nearly in Q3s and Q4s as well).