MatterofStats 2014 : Team Dashboard for Round 5
/It's surely been a while - though I've not formally checked the record - since a team with a percentage below 85 has sat with a notional Finals spot five games into a season.
That's where the Gold Coast finds itself this week after its 8-point win over the Dees left it with a 375-443 points-scoring record for the season. Seven teams outside the Top 8 have scored more points than the Suns in offence, and four have conceded fewer points in defence. Small wonder then that the middle section of the Team Dashboard shows the Suns as having won 1.4 games more than we'd expect based on their scoring record, the highest number of "bonus" games of any team in the competition.
St Kilda, who sit in ninth spot just behind the Suns because of a marginally inferior percentage are also lucky to be there based on their scoring record. Using the same Win Production Function to make the estimation, they've registered 1.2 more wins than we'd have expected given their scoring prowess in attack and defence.
The Dons, whose percentage of 111.72 is superior to both the Suns' and the Saints', are the team whose actual record is poorest relative to what their scoring achievements deserve. They're a full game behind where we'd expect them to be right now.
(I note in passing that the Lions finally won their first quarter of the season this week, nudging the 2nd Quarter 3.1 (19) to the Tigers' 2.2 (14). That means they've now only the second-worst performances in 2nd Quarters amongst all the teams. They're still worst in the three other Quarters though.)
