Predicting Bookmaker Head-to-Head Prices : Five Years On

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Recently, in light of the discussions about the validity of the season simulations written up over on the Simulations journal, I got to thinking about modelling the Bookmaker's price-setting behaviour and how it might be expected to respond to the outcomes of earlier games in the season. It's a topic I've investigated before, but not for a while.

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The 2011 Performance of the MARS, Colley and Massey Ratings Systems

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I was curious - and that's rarely a portent of lazy evenings - as to which of the three ratings systems we've been tracking since Round 14 is best, so I set about finding out.
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Predicting the Home Team's Final Margin: A Competition Amongst Predictive Algorithms

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With fewer than half-a-dozen home-and-away rounds to be played, it's time I was posting to the Simulations blog, but this year I wanted to see if I could find a better algorithm than OLS for predicting the margins of victory for each of the remaining games.
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Can We Do Better Than The Binary Logit?

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To say that there's a 'bit in this blog' is like declaring the 100 year war 'a bit of a skirmish'.

I'll start by broadly explaining what I've done. In a previous blog I constructed 12 models, each attempting to predict the winner of an AFL game. The 12 models varied in two ways, firstly in terms of how the winning team was described ...
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