Team Scoring Model Parameter Sensitivity
/In recent blogs we've being exploring a range of topics related to team scoring, all of them based on a model I created in a series of blogs
Read MorePredicting Total Game Scores Versus Predicting Margins
/In the comments section of the previous blog, LT pointed out that Bookmakers seem to be doing a better job this year predicting the sum of the Home Team and Away Team scores than predicting the difference between them.
Read MoreEstimating Game Margin Variability: Empirical Challenges
/Lately I've been thinking a lot and writing a little - a mix that experience has taught me is nearer optimal - about the variability of game margins around their expected values.
Read MoreHome Team and Away Team Scores Across VFL/AFL History
/About 18 months ago I investigated the statistical properties of home teams' and away teams' scoring behaviour over the period from the start of the 2006 season to the middle of the 2012 season taken as a whole. In that blog, using the VGAM package, I found that the Normal distribution provided a reasonable fit to the scores of Home teams and a much better fit to the scores of Away teams over that entire period.
Read MorePredictability of Team Scores: 1897 to 2013
/In today's blog I'll be addressing a range of topics about the season-by-season history of the VFL/AFL
Read MoreVisualising Team Scores
/It's a cliche, sure, but sometimes a picture (or two) does paint a thousand words.
Read MoreTeam Scores - Statistical Distribution and Dependence
/In the most recent post on the Simulations blog I assumed that Home Team and Away Team scores were independently and Normally distributed (about their conditional means). I'll investigate both these assumptions in this blog.
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