Modelling the Total Score of an AFL Game

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Over the eight seasons from 2006 to 2013 an average AFL game produced about 185 points with a standard deviation of around 33 points. In about one quarter of the games the two teams between them could only muster about 165 points while in another one quarter they racked up 207 points or more.

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The Drivers of Overround

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What features of a contest, I wondered this week, led to it having a larger or smaller overround than an average game? In which games might the bookie be able to grab another quarter or half a percent, and in which might he be forced to round down the overround?
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Assessing ProPred's, WinPred's and the Bookie's Probability Forecasts

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Almost 12 months ago, in this blog, I introduced the topic of probability scoring as a basis on which to assess the forecasting performance of a probabilistic tipster. Unfortunately, I used it for the remainder of last season as a means of assessing the ill-fated HELP algorithm, which didn't so much need a probability score to measure its awfullness as it did a stenchometer. As a consequence I think I'd mentally tainted the measure, but it deserves another run with another algorithm.
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