2023 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 13
/There are now nine teams with about a 5-in-9 or better chance of playing Finals, nine teams with about a 1-in-9 or better chance of finishing Top 4, and three teams with about a 1-in-7 or better chance of finishing as Minor Premiers.
Those simulations suggest that the teams can now be roughly grouped as follows:
Port Adelaide and Collingwood: almost certain of being finalists; 85 to 90% chance of finishing Top 4; and 35 to 40% chance of being Minor Premier
Melbourne: almost certain of being finalists; 75% chance of finishing Top 4; and about 15% chance of being Minor Premier
Brisbane Lions: about 90% chance of being finalists; 60% chances of finishing Top 4; and 8% chance of being Minor Premier
St Kilda and Essendon: about 65 to 70% chance of being finalists; about 20 to 25% chance of finishing Top 4; and 2% chance of being Minor Premier
Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, and Geelong: about 55 to 60% chance of being finalists; 10 to 15% chance of finishing Top 4; and about 0.5% chance of being Minor Premier
Gold Coast and Fremantle: about 30% chance of being finalists; about 4% chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier
Richmond and Sydney: about 20% chance of being a finalist; 1.5% chance of finishing Top 4; and virtually no chance of being Minor Premier
Carlton: roughly 7% chance of being finalists; and little to virtually no chance of finishing Top 4 or being Minor Premier
GWS: about 3% chance of being a finalist and virtually no chance of finishing Top 4 or being Minor Premier
Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and West Coast: little to no chance of being finalists, finishing Top 4. or being Minor Premier