The first round results have changed most people’s estimates of many of the 18 team’s chances of playing Finals football, and they’ve changed MoSHBODS’ estimates, too.

Around this time last season I created my first ever pre-season simulation of the final home-and-away ladder. We all saw the enduring value that had, so I thought I’d do it again this year.

Again I’ll be using two methodologies, which I call Standard and Heretical, and that are described below. Hopefully this year we’ll be able to compare and contrast these two approaches for a full 23 rounds.

Perhaps never more than this year, have assumptions about the effects on teams’ chances of where Finals are being played been more important.

With the venues (and teams) for the two Semi Finals now determined, along with the venues for both Preliminary Finals, a few more sources of variability have been removed from any projections of the Finals series.

Most years, by this time in the season I would have already, along with simulating the final home-and-away ladder, have also simulated the Finals. But this year I’ve just felt that there have been too many unknown, unknowns to add into the sources of variability.

In terms of Finals positions, six teams are now locked in, leaving the Dogs, Saints, Dees, and Giants to fight for the remaining two spots, and with the first two of that quartet far more likely to make it than the last two.

Using the Standard Methodolgy (or, let’s be honest, basic maths), Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Richmond, West Coast, and St Kilda are all essentially certainties for playing Finals. Collingwood are 9 chances in 10, Western Bulldogs about 5 in 9, GWS 3 in 10, and Melbourne 1 in 4.

Using the Standard Methodolgy, Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide, Geelong, Richmond, and West Coast are all now essentially certainties for playing Finals. St Kilda and Collingwood are now both about 80% chances, GWS 60% chances, Melbourne just under 50% chances, and Western Bulldogs almost 30% chances.

Using the Standard Methodolgy, Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Geelong, Richmond, and West Coast are all now assessed as having 96% or better chances of playing Finals, and Collingwood, St Kilda, and Melbourne all about 75% to 80% chances.

The latest simulation results for the 2020 home-and-away season appear below..

It’s been a while - ten rounds, in fact - since last we looked at some simulations of the home-and-away season. Today, with the remainder of the schedule now largely determined, save for the venuing in Round 18, we’'ll return to that task.

With almost 12% of the home-and-away season now completed, and knowing twice as much about it as we did last week, time to update our projections about how this part of the season will wind up.

If simulating the end of home-and-away season ladder after one round isn’t already difficult enough in that it typically requires estimates of how good you think teams will be in 6 months time, this year we have the added challenge that we don’t yet even know who will face who from Round 6 onwards, nor where they will meet. Nor do we know when, if at all, fans will be permitted to return to watch games live and, for the time that they’re not, what the effect on home ground advantage will be.

I know the received wisdom is that one should be wary of being too influenced by one’s peers, but here I am, pre-season, putting together projections for the final home and away ladder, mostly because I’m seeing others are doing it, which completely contradicts the views I’ve expressed in previous years about the folly of attempting such a forecasting task because of the huge amounts of uncertainty associated with it. Is that progress or capitulation - you be the judge.

In terms of the Flag, we now have fair prices of about $2.95 for Richmond, $3.65 for Collingwood,, $6.35 for Geelong, $10 for Brisbane Lions, $16 for West Coast and GWS.

In terms of the Flag, we now have fair prices of about $2.95 for Richmond, $3.65 for Collingwood,, $6.35 for Geelong, $10 for Brisbane Lions, $16 for West Coast and GWS.

In terms of the Flag, we now have fair prices of about $3.55 for Richmond, $4.25 for Geelong, $5.15 for Collingwood, $6 for Brisbane Lions, $16 for Western Bulldogs, $30 for West Coast, $60 for GWS, and $200 for Essendon.

Last weekend’s results had quite an impact on the likely shape of the Final 8, and also some impact on the race for the Flag

Often, there’s little point in simulating the final ladder with only one round to be played, but this year is different, as there are four teams with some hope - but no certainty - of playing Finals.

Last weekend’s results have served to make the race for the Flag a fairly even contest between three or four teams according to the latest simulations of the Final series using the methodology described here and the 50,000 final home-and-away ladders produced by our original simulations.