2020 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 17
/The latest (and final) simulation results for the 2020 home-and-away season appear below.
For details about the methodologies being used, see this post from earlier in the season.
LADDER FINISHES
In terms of Finals positions, six teams are now locked in, leaving the Dogs, Saints, Dees, and Giants to fight for the remaining two spots, and with the first two of that quartet far more likely to make it than the last two.
For Top 4 spots, we have the Lions and Power as locks, and the Tigers, Cats and Eagles as candidates for the two remaining places, and the Eagles only about 3 in 10 chances to take one of them.
For Minor Premier, Port Adelaide are now just slight favourites over Brisbane Lions.
MOST LIKELY LADDER FINISHES
Probably the only other thing that’s of major interest this week is the likely ordering of the teams in the Top 4 and Top 8.
There are 10 orderings of teams in the Top 4 that carry a probability greater than 1%, and they appear in the table at right.
The most-common ordering sees Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Richmond, and then Geelong filling the Top 4 places, in that order, while the next most-common reverses Port Adelaide and Brisbane Lions.
Together, those two orderings account for more than 60% of the simulation replicates.
West Coast sneaks into 4th in the next four most-common orderings, sometimes tipping out Geelong, and other times Richmond. In about 4% of replicates, the Eagles finish as high as 3rd.
And, finally, we find that there are still 23 possible orderings of the Top 8 that carry a probability of 1% or higher. The most-common ordering pairs the most-common Top 4 with West Coast, Collingwood, St Kilda, and the Western Bulldogs in 5th through 8th. It occurred in almost 1 replicate in 7.
