If simulating the end of home-and-away season ladder after one round isn’t already difficult enough in that it typically requires estimates of how good you think teams will be in 6 months time, this year we have the added challenge that we don’t yet even know who will face who from Round 6 onwards, nor where they will meet. Nor do we know when, if at all, fans will be permitted to return to watch games live and, for the time that they’re not, what the effect on home ground advantage will be.

I know the received wisdom is that one should be wary of being too influenced by one’s peers, but here I am, pre-season, putting together projections for the final home and away ladder, mostly because I’m seeing others are doing it, which completely contradicts the views I’ve expressed in previous years about the folly of attempting such a forecasting task because of the huge amounts of uncertainty associated with it. Is that progress or capitulation - you be the judge.

In terms of the Flag, we now have fair prices of about $2.95 for Richmond, $3.65 for Collingwood,, $6.35 for Geelong, $10 for Brisbane Lions, $16 for West Coast and GWS.

In terms of the Flag, we now have fair prices of about $2.95 for Richmond, $3.65 for Collingwood,, $6.35 for Geelong, $10 for Brisbane Lions, $16 for West Coast and GWS.

In terms of the Flag, we now have fair prices of about $3.55 for Richmond, $4.25 for Geelong, $5.15 for Collingwood, $6 for Brisbane Lions, $16 for Western Bulldogs, $30 for West Coast, $60 for GWS, and $200 for Essendon.

Last weekend’s results had quite an impact on the likely shape of the Final 8, and also some impact on the race for the Flag

Often, there’s little point in simulating the final ladder with only one round to be played, but this year is different, as there are four teams with some hope - but no certainty - of playing Finals.

Last weekend’s results have served to make the race for the Flag a fairly even contest between three or four teams according to the latest simulations of the Final series using the methodology described here and the 50,000 final home-and-away ladders produced by our original simulations.

According to the latest simulation results, Essendon are now only slightly better than even-money chances for a Finals berth, and Adelaide only just better than 1 in 3 chances. Meantime, the Western Bulldogs have seen their chances rise to over 3 in 10.

In the race for the Top 4, three teams now have 94% chances or higher, Richmond is about a 3 in 4 shot, and Collingwood almost a 3 in 10 shot. GWS is the only other team with any chance at all.

Geelong are now estimated to be 56% chances for the Minor Premiership, and the Brisbane Lions 32% chances.

Last weekend’s results certainly seemed to make the race for the Flag a lot more interesting for neutrals, so let’s, once again, simulate the Final series by applying the methodology described here to the 50,000 final ladders produced by our original simulations, to see just how interesting it’s become.

Last weekend’s results essentially locked in 6 of the 8 Finalists according to the latest simulation results, and left Essendon with an estimated 80% chance of a berth, Adelaide with a slightly better than even-money shot, and Port Adelaide with a slightly worse than even-money shot at playing into September. Five other teams have mathematical chances, the best of them the Western Bulldogs, who make the Finals in 11% of simulation replicates.

In the race for the Top 4, three teams have 84% chances or higher, Richmond is about a 2 in 3 shot, GWS a 1 in 2 shot, and Collingwood a 3 in 20 shot. Essendon and Adelaide have chances too, but they need to be preceded with the adjective “vanishingly small”.

Geelong are now estimated to be only 44% chances for the Minor Premiership, and the Brisbane Lions 36% chances.

The Cats are, once again, a story in red, a reflection of their now estimated 70% chance of taking out the Minor Premiership. The Lions’ have a lot more orange in their results because their most-likely finish is second on the ladder. Amazingly, given that there are only four rounds left, 15 teams make the Finals - and, in fact, make the Grand Final - in at least one simulation replicate.

There are now seven teams with 94% or better estimated chances of playing Finals, Adelaide with an almost 60% chance, and just three teams - Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, and Hawthorn - with double-digit chances. All of which means there’s a slightly better than 50% chance that the 8 we have now will be, in some order or another, the 8 we have come the end of Round 23, according to the latest simulations.

In the race for the Top 4, five teams have roughly 50% chances or better, and Collingwood, after another loss has only a 1 in 6 chance.

Geelong are estimated to be 70% chances for the Minor Premiership, and the Brisbane Lions 21% chances.

There’s a little less red in the bars for Geelong this week, as the Brisbane Lions’ prospects for the Minor Premiership rose to better than 1 in 5.

Along with that increase came an increase in the Lions’ Flag prospects, which are now estimated to be about 19%, just 1% point below Geelong’s. Geelong, however, continues to win most of its Flags after finishing Minor Premiers, while the Lions win more often from 2nd spot on the home-and-away ladder.

Behind that pair, West Coast, Richmond, Collingwood, and GWS are all assessed as about 10 to 14% chances for the Flag.

Eight teams now have strong claims to a spot in the Finals (70% or better) with only two more, Port Adelaide and Hawthorn, having estimated double-digit chances. The race for the Top 4 is a little less settled, with six teams having a 40% or better shot and one more, Essendon, an estimated 14% chance.

Geelong’s loss and Brisbane Lions’ win meant that the Cats’ grip on the Minor Premiership loosened. It is now only a 62% chance for the Minor Premiership, with the Brisbane Lions’ chances rising to 22%.

In the latest simulation replicates we see Brisbane Lions moving up to be second-favourites for the Flag, and now most-likely to finish 2nd at the end of the home-and-away season. The Lions win the Flag in about 18% of replicates, and do so from 1st or 2nd on the ladder about half the time.

Geelong wins the Flag about 22% of the time, but does so almost exclusively after finishing as Minor Premiers.

Collingwood, West Coast Coast, and Richmond are all 12 to 15% chances for the Flag, but most often win it after finishing outside the Top 2 on the final home-and-away ladder.

We’re now in a situation where 8 teams have a 65% or better shot at the Finals, and a ninth team, Port Adelaide, has about a 1 in 3 shot. As well, four teams now have a 60% or better shot at a Top 4 finish, and two more better than 1 in 4 chances. Geelong still has the proverbial stranglehold on the Minor Premiership, but of the three teams trailing them by two wins, Brisbane Lions is estimated as having by far the greatest chance of overhauling them.

Let’s, again, simulate the Final series by applying the methodology described here to the 50,000 final ladders produced by our original simulations.

We’re now in a situation where 8 teams have a better than 60% shot at the Finals, and a ninth team, Essendon, still has an almost 50% shot. Five teams now also have about a 1 in 2 or better shot at a Top 4 finish. It’s beginning to look a lot more like musical chairs …

Let’s, for the second time this season, simulate the Final series by applying the methodology described here to the 50,000 final ladders produced by our original simulations.