This year’s post Round 22 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney: certain of being finalists; near certain of Top 4; 80% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong and Port Adelaide: near certain of being finalists; 80-85% chances of Top 4; 7% chances of being Minor Premier

3. GWS and Brisbane Lions: near certain of being finalists; 60-65% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs: 90-95% chances of being finalists; 0.5-2% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

5. Fremantle and Carlton: 50-60% chances of being finalists; tiny to 5% chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

6. Essendon and Collingwood: 2-5% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

7. Gold Coast: snowball’s chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4 or of being Minor Premier

8. Melbourne, St Kilda, Adelaide, West Coast, North Melbourne, and Richmond: no chance of being finalists, Top 4, or Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 21 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney and Brisbane Lions: virtually certain of being finalists; 90-95% chances of Top 4; 40-50% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Port Adelaide, Geelong, and Western Bulldogs: 95% chances of being finalists; 40-60% chances of Top 4; 1-5% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Fremantle, GWS, and Carlton: 75-80% chances of being finalists; 15-25% chances of Top 4; tiny-1% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Hawthorn: 50% chances of being finalists; tiny chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

5. Essendon: 20% chances of being finalists; tiny chances of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

6. Collingwood: 5% chances of being finalists; no chance of Top 4 or of being Minor Premier

7. Melbourne: tiny chance of being finalists, no chance of Top 4 or Minor Premier

8. Gold Coast, St Kilda, Adelaide, West Coast, North Melbourne, and Richmond: no chance of being finalists, Top 4, or Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 20 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists; 99% chances of Top 4; 82% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Brisbane Lions and Fremantle: 94-98% chances of being finalists; 60-75% chances of Top 4; 5-10% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Carlton, Geelong, and Western Bulldogs: 90% chances of being finalists; 35-45% chances of Top 4; 0.2-1% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, and GWS: 60-70% chances of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; slim chances of being Minor Premier

5. Essendon, Melbourne, Collingwood, and Gold Coast: 5-10% chances of being finalists; slim chances of Top 4; no chances of being Minor Premier

6. St Kilda, Adelaide, West Coast, Richmond, and North Melbourne: slim to no chance of being finalists, no chance of Top 4 or Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 19 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists; 99.7% chances of Top 4; 93% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Carlton, Brisbane Lions, and Fremantle: 94-98% chances of being finalists; 65-80% chances of Top 4; 1-3% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Geelong: 90% chances of being finalists; 40% chances of Top 4; slim chances of being Minor Premier

4. Western Bulldogs: 70% chances of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; slim chances of being Minor Premier

5. GWS, Port Adelaide, and Hawthorn: 50-60% chances of being finalists; 5-15% chances of Top 4; slim to no chances of being Minor Premier

6. Essendon, Melbourne, and Gold Coast: 25-30% chances of being finalists; 1-5% chances of Top 4; slim to no chances of being Minor Premier

7. Collingwood: 5% chance of being finalists; slim chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

8. Adelaide and St Kilda: slim chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4 or being Minor Premier

9. West Coast, Richmond, and North Melbourne: no chance of being finalists, Top 4, or Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 18 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists; 99.8% chances of Top 4; 94% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Carlton and Geelong: 97% chances of being finalists; 70-80% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Brisbane Lions and Fremantle: 85-90% chances of being finalists; 45-50% chances of Top 4; 0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Essendon: 65% chances of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; slim chances of being Minor Premier

5. GWS, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and Western Bulldogs: 45-55% chances of being finalists; 5-10% chances of Top 4; slim chances of being Minor Premier

6. Hawthorn, Gold Coast, and Collingwood: 25-30% chance of being finalists; 2-4% chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

7. Adelaide and St Kilda: slim chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4 or being Minor Premier

8. West Coast, Richmond, and North Melbourne: no chance of being finalists, Top 4, or Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 17 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists; 99.4% chances of Top 4; 85% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Carlton: 98% chances of being finalists; 85% chances of Top 4; 10% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Fremantle, Geelong, and Brisbane Lions : 85-90% chances of being finalists; 45-55% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Essendon: 75% chances of being finalists; 25% chances of Top 4; 1% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Port Adelaide, GWS, Melbourne, and Collingwood: 40-55% chances of being finalists; 5-15% chances of Top 4; slim chances of being Minor Premier

6. Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, and Hawthorn: 15-30% chance of being finalists; 1-3% chance of Top 4; no or tiny chance of being Minor Premier

7. St Kilda and Adelaide: 0.5% chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4 or being Minor Premier

8. West Coast, Richmond, and North Melbourne: no chance of being finalists, Top 4, or Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 16 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists; 99.7% chances of Top 4; 90% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Carlton: 99% chances of being finalists; 90% chances of Top 4; 10% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Fremantle and Brisbane Lions : 85-90% chances of being finalists; 45-60% chances of Top 4; 0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Geelong: 75% chances of being finalists; 25-30% chances of Top 4; slim chances of being Minor Premier

5. Collingwood, Essendon, Western Bulldogs, and Gold Coast: 45-60% chances of being finalists; 10-20% chances of Top 4; slim chances of being Minor Premier

6. Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Melbourne, and GWS: 30-40% chance of being finalists; 5% chance of Top 4; no or tiny chance of being Minor Premier

7. Adelaide and St Kilda: 0.4-0.8% chance of being finalists; no or tiny chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

8. West Coast, Richmond, and North Melbourne: no chance of being finalists, Top 4, or Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 15 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney: virtually certain of being finalists; 99.9% chances of Top 4; 95% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Carlton: 98% chances of being finalists; 85% chances of Top 4; 4% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, Collingwood, and Essendon: 70-85% chances of being finalists; 30-45% chances of Top 4; 0.2-0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Geelong, Western Bulldogs, and GWS: 50-60% chances of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; slim chances of being Minor Premier

5. Melbourne, Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, and Hawthorn: 25-35% chance of being finalists; 4-7% chance of Top 4; no or tiny chance of being Minor Premier

6. St Kilda and Adelaide: 0.5-2% chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

7. West Coast, Richmond, and North Melbourne: tiny to no chance of being finalists, Top 4, or Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 14 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney: 99.99% chances of being finalists; 99.5% chances of Top 4; 90% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Carlton: 90-95% chances of being finalists; 70% chances of Top 4; 4% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Geelong, Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, GWS, and Brisbane Lions: 60-70% chances of being finalists; 25-35% chances of Top 4; 0.2-1% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, and Gold Coast: 40-55% chances of being finalists; 12-16% chances of Top 4; 0.1-0.2% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Hawthorn: 25% chance of being finalists; 4% chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

6. St Kilda and Adelaide: 0.5-2% chance of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

7. West Coast, Richmond and North Melbourne: no chance of being finalists, Top 4, or Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 13 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney: 99.9% chances of being finalists; 98% chances of Top 4; 80% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Carlton: 90-95% chances of being finalists; 70% chances of Top 4; 7% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Fremantle, Collingwood, Geelong, Essendon, Port Adelaide, and Brisbane Lions: 65-80% chances of being finalists; 25-45% chances of Top 4; 0.5-3% chances of being Minor Premier

4. GWS: 50% chances of being finalists; 20% chances of Top 4; 0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Melbourne, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs: 40% chances of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; tiny chances of being Minor Premier

6. Hawthorn: 15% chance of being finalists; 2% chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

7. St Kilda and Adelaide: 2% chance of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

8. West Coast, Richmond and North Melbourne: none or virtually no chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 12 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney: 99% chances of being finalists; 95% chances of Top 4; 75% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Carlton: 90% chances of being finalists; 60% chances of Top 4; 8% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Fremantle, Geelong, Essendon, Collingwood, and GWS: 60-75% chances of being finalists; 30-40% chances of Top 4; 3-4% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, and Gold Coast: 50-60% chances of being finalists; 15-20% chances of Top 4; 0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Brisbane Lions: 40% chance of being finalists; 10% chance of Top 4; none or virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

6. Hawthorn and Adelaide: 7-10% chance of being finalists; 0.5-1% chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

7. Hawthorn: 5% chance of being finalists; 0.5% chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

8. St Kilda: 2% chance of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

9. West Coast, Richmond and North Melbourne: none or virtually no chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 11 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney: 99% chances of being finalists; 95% chances of Top 4; 75% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Carlton and Melbourne: 75-80% chances of being finalists; 40% chances of Top 4; 4% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Collingwood, Port Adelaide, and Geelong: 70% chances of being finalists; 35% chances of Top 4; 3-4% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Essendon and GWS: 60-65% chances of being finalists; 25-30% chances of Top 4; 2-4% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Fremantle, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs: 45-50% chances of being finalists; 15-20% chances of Top 4; 0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. Brisbane Lions: 35% chance of being finalists; 10% chance of Top 4; none or virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

7. Adelaide: 15-20% chance of being finalists; 3% chance of Top 4; none or virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

8. Hawthorn: 5% chance of being finalists; 0.5% chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

9. St Kilda and West Coast: 0.5-1% chance of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

10. Richmond and North Melbourne: no chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 10 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney: 99% chances of being finalists; 90% chances of Top 4; 65% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Geelong: 85% chances of being finalists; 50% chances of Top 4; 10% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Port Adelaide, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, and Melbourne: 65-70% chances of being finalists; 30% chances of Top 4; 2-4% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Gold Coast, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions, and GWS: 50-60% chances of being finalists; 15-25% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Adelaide: 10% chance of being finalists; 1% chance of Top 4; none or virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

6. Hawthorn, St Kilda, and West Coast: 1-4% chance of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

7. Richmond and North Melbourne: no chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 9 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Sydney and Geelong: 95% chances of being finalists; 70-80% chances of Top 4; 20-40% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Melbourne: 85% chances of being finalists; 50% chances of Top 4; 10% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Carlton, GWS, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, and Essendon: 65-75% chances of being finalists; 25-35% chances of Top 4; 5% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Brisbane Lions, Fremantle, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs: 35-45% chances of being finalists; 10% chances of Top 4; 0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Adelaide, St Kilda, and Hawthorn: 5-10% chance of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4; none or virtually no chance of being Minor Premier

6. West Coast, Richmond, and North Melbourne: none or virtually no chance of being finalists; none or virtually no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

There is now, then, an emerging gap between a clear Top 8 and the rest of the teams, and also a clear Top 2.

This year’s post Round 8 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Geelong and Sydney: 95%+ chances of being finalists; 70-80% chances of Top 4; 25-35% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Melbourne and GWS: 85-90% chances of being finalists; 50-60% chances of Top 4; 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Carlton and Collingwood: 65-70% chances of being finalists; 30% chances of Top 4; 3% to 4% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Essendon, and Brisbane Lions: 50-55% chances of being finalists; 15-20% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, and St Kilda: 15-30% chance of being finalists; 2-5% chance of Top 4; very small chance of being Minor Premier

6. Hawthorn, West Coast and Richmond: 1-4% chances of being finalists; none to very small chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

7. North Melbourne: no chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

Geelong: 98% chances of being finalists; 85% chances of Top 4; 40% chances of being Minor Premier

1. GWS and Sydney: 85-90% chances of being finalists; 60% chances of Top 4; 15% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Melbourne and Carlton: 80% chances of being finalists; 45-50% chances of Top 4; 7% to 9% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Port Adelaide: 65% chances of being finalists; 25% chances of Top 4; 3% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Collingwood: 55% chances of being finalists; 20% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Gold Coast, Essendon, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, and Brisbane Lions: 40-45% chance of being finalists; 9-12% chance of Top 4; 0.5-1% chance of being Minor Premier

6. St Kilda and Adelaide: 15% chances of being finalists; 2% of Top 4; tiny chance of being Minor Premier

7. West Coast: 4% chances of being finalists; 0.5% chance of Top 4; tiny chance of being Minor Premier

8. Richmond and Hawthorn: 1.5% chance of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

9. North Melbourne: no chance of being finalists, Top 4, or Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 4 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Geelong: 95% chances of being finalists; 80% chances of Top 4; 40% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Carlton, GWS, Sydney, and Melbourne: 80% chances of being finalists; 50% chances of Top 4; 10% to 15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Brisbane Lions, and Western Bulldogs: 50-65% chances of being finalists; 15-25% chances of Top 4; 2-4% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Essendon, Gold Coast, and Fremantle: 35-40% chance of being finalists; 10% chance of Top 4; 1% chance of being Minor Premier

5. St Kilda: 20% chances of being finalists; 5% of Top 4; tiny chance of being Minor Premier

6. Adelaide, West Coast, and Hawthorn: 5-10% chances of being finalists; 0.5-1.5% chance of Top 4; tiny chance of being Minor Premier

7. Richmond: 2.5% chance of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4; tiny chance of being Minor Premier

8. North Melbourne: tiny chance of being finalists; no chance of Top 4 or Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 4 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Geelong and GWS: 85-90% chances of being finalists; 60% chances of Top 4; 25% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Carlton, Fremantle, Sydney, and Brisbane Lions: 65-80% chances of being finalists; 30-45% chances of Top 4; 6% to 10% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Gold Coast, St Kilda, and Collingwood: 35-45% chances of being finalists; 10-15% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Adelaide, Western Bulldogs and Essendon: 20-25% chance of being finalists; 4-6% chance of Top 4; tiny chance of being Minor Premier

5. Hawthorn: 3% chances of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

6. Richmond, West Coast and North Melbourne: <1.5% chances of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 4 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Melbourne and GWS: 85-90% chances of being finalists; 55-70% chances of Top 4; 20-25% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Carlton, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Sydney, and Fremantle: 65-80% chances of being finalists; 30-50% chances of Top 4; 5% to 15% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Brisbane Lions, St Kilda, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast: 35-50% chances of being finalists; 10-15% chances of Top 4; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

4. Adelaide: 20% chance of being finalists; 3.5% chance of Top 4; tiny chance of being Minor Premier

5. Essendon, Richmond, and Hawthorn: 8-12% chances of being finalists; 1-2% chances of Top 4; virtually no chances of being Minor Premier

6. North Melbourne and West Coast: <1% chances of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4; no chance of being Minor Premier

This year’s post Round 3 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)

1. Melbourne and GWS: 80-85% chances of being finalists; 55-60% chances of Top 4; 20% chances of being Minor Premier

2. Fremantle, Geelong, Carlton, Sydney, and Port Adelaide: 65-75% chances of being finalists; 35-45% chances of Top 4; 8% to 13% chances of being Minor Premier

3. Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast: 45-50% chances of being finalists; 15-20% chances of Top 4; 2% to 4% chances of being Minor Premier

4. St Kilda, Collingwood, Adelaide, and Brisbane Lions: 30-40% chances of being finalists; 10-15% chances of Top 4; up to 2% chances of being Minor Premier

5. Essendon, Richmond, and Hawthorn: 10-20% chances of being finalists; 2-5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

6. North Melbourne and West Coast: 1-3% chances of being finalists; tiny chance of Top 4 or of being Minor Premier