2024 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 0
/This year’s post Round 0 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
(For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal)
GWS and Adelaide: 70% chances of being finalists; 15% chances of being Minor Premier
Sydney, Carlton, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast, Melbourne, and Fremantle: 55-65% chances of being finalists; 6% to 9% chances of being Minor Premier
St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, and Geelong: 40-45% chances of being finalists; 4% to 4.5% chances of being Minor Premier
Richmond, and Hawthorn: 20-30% chances of being finalists; 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier
North Melbourne and Essendon: 10-15% chances of being finalists; 0.5% chances of being Minor Premier
West Coast: 5% chance of being a finalist; 0.1% chance of being Minor Premier
LADDER FINISHES
The ladder projections using the Heretical outputs appear below.
Richmond’s and Melbourne’s FInals chances fell most substantially this week, and Sydney’s, Carlton’s, and the Gold Coast’s rose most substantially. Interestingly, GWS’ chances fell and Collingwood’s rose, despite the Giants’ victory, because MoSHBODS discounts a conversion rate of 75% (18.6) and boosts a conversion rate of 41% (11.16), which in this case drags the Pies above expectations and the Giants below.
The other obvious point to make is the incredibly tight grouping of many of most of the teams, with 13 of them estimated to have at least about 40% chances of playing Finals, and 12 of them estimated to have at least about 20% chances of finishing Top 4.
TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION
The HHI figures for these pre-season simulation replicates appear below. These provide us with estimates of:
How many ladder positions a team is currently effectively fighting for
How many teams are currently effectively fighting for a given ladder position
There is only so much that 44% of a normal round of football can do, so we don’t see a great deal of movement on the Team and Position concentration tables.
We can see that the vast majority of teams are still effectively fighting for between 15 and 17 (or even 18!) ladder positions, and that most ladder positions still have 15 to 17 (or even 18!) teams effectively fighting for them.
On the teams side, the exceptions remain Adelaide, GWS, North Melbourne, Essendon, and West Coast, and on the ladder positions side, the exceptions remain 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 16th, 17th, and 18th.
We see, as we do every year, that the ladder positions with the most uncertainty are those in the middle of the table, from about 5th to 14th.
We also see that the average team is effectively competing for about 15 positions, and the average ladder position has about 15 teams competing for it.
WINS AND LADDER POSITION
With 23 games per team again this season, let’s look at the number of wins MoSHBODS thinks will be sufficient for given ladder positions.
The chart below reveals what the simulations suggest about that recalibration.
Based on the simulations, we can say that:
For teams finishing 8th in a replicate: 30% had 12 wins, 36% had 13 wins, and 10% had 12.5 wins (also, 5% had 11 wins and 10% had 14 wins)
For teams finishing 4th in a replicate: 30% had 15 wins, 29% had 16 wins, and 8% had 15.5 wins (also, 10% had 14 wins, and 5% had 14.5 wins)
Looked at another way:
For teams finishing win 11 wins: 5% made Finals
For teams finishing win 12 wins: 35% made Finals
For teams finishing win 13 wins: 81% made Finals
For teams finishing win 14 wins: 98% made Finals
LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE
Next, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 24 based on percentage.
So, our initial estimates are that:
There’s about a 3-in-8 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages
There’s about a 1-in-3 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages
There’s about a 1-in-6 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages
