2021 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 17 - Updated

I’ve updated the simulations to reflect the confirmed venues for Rounds 19 and 20 (at this stage assuming the Round 20 GWS v Port Adelaide game will be played at Manuka), and the results are shown below.

The main difference is in the switch of the Swans v Freo game from the SCG to Kardinia Park, which directly benefits Fremantle and penalises Sydney. Under the Standard Methodology, it also penalises GWS and West Coast. The picture is less clear under the Heretical Methodology because the 2,500 replicates makes for less precise probability estimates.

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STANDARD METHODOLOGY

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HERETICAL METHODOLOGY

The results are, as expected, very similar to those in the earlier post with perhaps the most significant change a reduction in the Finals chances of GWS of the order of magnitude of about 1% point.