2021 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 22
/The latest simulation results appear below in what is a relatively short post this week, as only a few of the analyses seem particularly relevant
(For details about the methodologies I’ve used, see this earlier blog.)
LADDER FINISHES
The key numbers this week are as follows, according to the Standard and Heretical methodologies:
Top 8
GWS and Essendon: about 8 or 9 in 10
Fremantle: about 1 in 4 or 5
West Coast: about 1 in 12 or 13
Richmond: about 1 in 2,500 or 5,000
Top 4
Western Bulldogs: about 7 in 10 to 3 in 4
Brisbane Lions: about 1 in 4 to 3 in 10
Minor Premier
Melbourne and Geelong: about 1 in 2
Port Adelaide: about 1 in 33
STANDARD METHODOLOGY
HERETICAL METHODOLOGY
The range of Expected Wins using both the Standard and Heretical Methodologies across the 18 teams moved to about 12.1 wins this week.
The animation below shows how each team’s ladder probabilities have varied across the season so far, according to the Standard Methodology.
Here’s that same data presented as stacked 100 percent bars in a format that I am now officially calling the Thingy format.
TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION
The HHI figures for the most recent Standard Methodology simulation replicates appear below.
(For information about the HHI, also see that previous blog linked to earlier).
Teams’ final ladder positions are very much becoming less uncertain with only a week until they’re locked in. This week saw especially large decreases for GWS, Hawthorn, Essendon, and West Coast, and increases for no team at all.
Fremantle, Richmond, and St Kilda are now the teams with greatest uncertainty about the positions in which they’ll finish on the ladder, each of them effectively competing still for about 4 to 5 different ladder spots. North Melbourne and Sydney have least uncertainty, with each now effectively competing for only 1 to 1.2 spots.
After 22 rounds, the average team is now effectively competing for about 2.8 different ladder positions.
Every ladder position saw decreases in the effective number of teams competing for them last week, with the largest decreases coming for 10th (-2.9 teams), 8th (-2.4), and 7th (-2.2).
Positions 9th, 11th, 12th and 15th are now the ones that are associated with most uncertainty, and 1st, 5th to 7th, 14th and 18th with least uncertainty.
There are now, effectively, about 2.1 teams vying for the Minor Premiership, and only 1 battling alone in the corner for the Spoon.
IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE
The Standard Methodology simulations suggest that percentages remain about a 2 in 5 chance to decide 8th spot on the ladder.
There is now an estimated 38% chance that 8th and 9th will finish equal on competition points, a 16% chance that 8th and 10th will, and a 14% chance that 8th and 11th will.
There’s also still about a 33% chance that the double-chance in the Finals will be determined by percentage
