2021 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 11

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In the latest Standard Method simulations, eleven teams now have a better than 1-in-4 shot at playing Finals, and six a better than 1-in-5 shot at finishing Top 4. Under the Heretical Methodology, the equivalent numbers are the same.

If we raise the cutoff to having a better than even chance, both methodologies now have 7 teams meeting this bar for a shot at Finals, and 3 meeting it for a shot at Top 4.

(For details about the methodologies I’ve used, see this earlier blog. Note that I have assumed no change in fixturing for the remainder of the season. In hindsight, I should probably at least have switched St Kilda into home team status for their return clash with Sydney later in the season)

LADDER FINISHES

Team Expected Wins under the Standard Methodology grew by about 0.9 wins this week for Melbourne and Essendon, and fell by the same amount for West Coast.

The only double-digit moves in terms of Finals chances were Essendon’s increase by 17% points to 36%, Sydney’s increase by 13% points to 80%, West Coast’s decrease by 20% points to 44%, and GWS’s decrease by 11% points to 30%,

Also, according to both the Standard and the Heretical Methodology, the Dogs and Dees are roughly 40% chances for the Minor Premiership.

STANDARD METHODOLOGY

HERETICAL METHODOLOGY

The range of Expected Wins using the Standard Methodology across the 18 teams moved to about 12.2 wins this week, while using the Heretical Methodology it came in at 14.2 wins.

Of the five teams that started with a 0-2 record (Brisbane Lions, Carlton, GWS, Essendon, and North Melbourne), the Standard Methodology now estimates that there’s about a 99.6% chance at least one of them will end up playing Finals.

Across the 50,000 simulations there are 38,358 different sets of teams playing Finals, treating different orderings of the same eight teams as a different set. No ordering appears in more than 22 replicates (that being the current Top 8 in the same order). If we ignore ordering, there are 839 different sets of eight Finalists.

Amongst the teams currently in the Top 8, the estimated probability that any 4 through 8 of them play Finals is:

  • All 8: 11%

  • Only 7: 53%

  • Only 6: 32%

  • Only 5: 3.9%

  • Only 4: 0.1%

Put another way, there’s about a 89% estimated chance that the teams playing Finals won’t be the current Top 8 teams.

TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION

The HHI figures for the most recent Standard Methodology simulation replicates appear below.

(For information about the HHI, also see that previous blog linked to earlier).

We see considerable reductions in final ladder position uncertainty this week for Sydney and Melbourne.

We also see a significant increase for Western Bulldogs, who are now effectively competing for 3.7 spots.

GWS, Fremantle, Carlton, Essendon, West Coast, and Richmond are the teams with greatest uncertainty about the positions in which they’ll finish on the ladder, each of them effectively competing now for about 10 to 10.5 ladder spots. North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Melbourne, and Western Bulldogs have least uncertainty, and are effectively competing for only about 2 to 4 spots.

Collingwood and Brisbane Lions are next most-certain, both effectively competing for about 5.5 to 6 ladder positions.

We see reductions in the uncertainty associated with all ladder positions except 1st, with the largest declines for 5th and 17th.

Positions 6th through 13th remain the ones that are associated with most uncertainty, and the top and tail positions - 1st through 3rd, and 16th through 18th - with least uncertainty.

There are now, effectively, only about three teams vying for the Minor Premiership, and just under two battling for the Spoon.

IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

The Standard Methodology simulations now suggest that it’s slightly less likely this week than it was last week that 8th place will be determined by percentage.

There is now an estimated 47% chance that 8th and 9th will finish equal on competition points (which is down about 1% point), a 19% chance that 8th and 10th will, and a 6% chance that 8th and 11th will.

There’s also about a 39% chance that the double-chance in the Finals will be determined by percentage (which is down about 2% points).

WINS TO MAKE The 8

Based on the Standard Methodology, the estimates of team chances of playing Finals should they finish on only 11 wins mostly lie in the 15% to 25% range, although they are a little higher for the Dogs, Lions, Hawks, Pies, and Dons, and a little lower for Fremantle, Adelaide, and St Kilda. Team chances still also mostly lie in the 75% to 90% range should a team record 12 wins, although they are somewhat lower for Fremantle, St Kilda and Adelaide. St Kilda remain not much better than a 50:50 proposition to play finals even if they win 8 of their remaining 11 games.

TEAM DEPENDENCIES IN FINALS CHANCES

Next, let’s review the dependencies in the estimated Finals chances of the four teams now estimated to have between a 25% and a 75% unconditional chance of playing Finals according to the Standard Methodology.

Using the arrow lengths as a proxy for dependence, we see that:

  • The Dons’ are about equally dependent on the Giants’, Tigers’, and Eagles’ chances

  • The Giants’ are most dependent on the Tigers’ and the Dons’

  • The Tigers’ are about equally dependent on the Eagles’, Giants’ and Dons’

  • The Eagles’ chances are most dependent on the Tigers’

HOW MANY WINS TO FINISH WHERE

Now a look at what the Standard Methodology shows for the joint distribution of number of wins and final ladder position for each team.

WINS FOR A PARTICULAR LADDER POSITION

And, finally, an update on the distribution of wins associated with each ladder position.

It’s still the case that 12 wins rather than 11 is more likely to be associated with the team finishing 8th, and that 14 wins rather than 13 or 15 wins will be associated with 4th spot on the final home-and-away ladder. That said, 15 wins is now almost as likely as 14 wins for the team finishing 4th.

GAME IMPORTANCE

Finally, let’s take a look at how the Standard Methodology estimates the importance of each of the remaining 99 games (see this blog for details about how these are calculated).

Here is the list of the 25 most important games in terms of their estimated influence on the composition of the finalists.

West Coast is involved in 9 of the Top 25, Richmond in 8, Essendon in 7, and GWS in 5. Only two teams now - North Melbourne and Hawthorn are currently not involved in any of the estimated Top 25.