2021 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 10

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A dozen teams still have a better than 1-in-5 shot at playing Finals, but only five a better than 1-in-5 shot at finishing Top 4, according to the latest round of simulations using the Standard Methodology. Under the Heretical Methodology, the equivalent numbers are the same.

If we raise the cutoff to having a better than even chance, both methodologies still have 8 teams meeting this bar for a shot at Finals, and 3 meeting it for a shot at Top 4.

(For details about the methodologies I’ve used, see this earlier blog)

LADDER FINISHES

Team Expected Wins under the Standard Methodology grew by about 0.8 wins this week for Western Bulldogs and Adelaide, and fell by about 1 full win for Melbourne.

The only double-digit move in terms of Finals chances was St Kilda’s decline by 10% points, essentially halving their chances. GWS was best amongst the gainers, its chances rising by 8% points to 41%.

Also, according to both the Standard and the Heretical Methodology, the Dogs roughly 60 to 70% and the Dees 20% chances for the Minor Premiership.

STANDARD METHODOLOGY

HERETICAL METHODOLOGY

The range of Expected Wins using the Standard Methodology across the 18 teams moved to about 12.1 wins this week, while using the Heretical Methodology it came in at 14.7 wins.

Of the five teams that started with a 0-2 record (Brisbane Lions, Carlton, GWS, Essendon, and North Melbourne), the Standard Methodology now estimates that there’s about a 99.2% chance at least one of them will end up playing Finals. That article talking about how unlikely this was seems like such a long time ago …

Across the 50,000 simulations there are 41,979 different sets of teams playing Finals, treating different orderings of the same eight teams as a different set. No ordering appears in more than 14 replicates. If we ignore ordering, there are 1,166 different sets of eight Finalists.

Amongst the teams currently in the Top 8, the estimated probability that any 4 through 8 of them play Finals is:

  • All 8: 26%

  • Only 7: 54%

  • Only 6: 19%

  • Only 5: 1.6%

  • Only 4: 0.4%

Put another way, there’s about a 75% estimated chance that the teams playing Finals won’t be the current Top 8 teams.

TEAM AND POSITION CONCENTRATION

The HHI figures for the most recent Standard Methodology simulation replicates appear below.

(For information about the HHI, also see that previous blog linked to earlier).

We see considerable reductions in final ladder position uncertainty this week for St Kilda, Brisbane Lions, Collingwood, and Western Bulldogs.

We also see a significant increase for Melbourne, and a slightly smaller one for Adelaide.

GWS, Fremantle, Carlton, Essendon, and Richmond are the teams with greatest uncertainty about the positions in which they’ll finish on the ladder, each of them effectively competing now for about 11 ladder spots now. North Melbourne and Western Bulldogs have least uncertainty, and are effectively competing for only about 2 spots.

Hawthorn and Melbourne are next most-certain, both effectively competing for about 5 ladder positions.

We see reductions in the uncertainty associated with all ladder positions except 12th and 13th, with the largest declines for 3rd and 17th.

Positions 6th through 13th remain the ones that are associated with most uncertainty, and the top and tail positions - 1st through 3rd, and 16th through 18th - with least uncertainty.

There are now, effectively, only about two teams vying for the Minor Premiership, and just over under two battling for the Spoon.

IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

The Standard Methodology simulations now suggest that it’s slightly more likely this week than it was last week that 8th place will be determined by percentage.

There is now an estimated 48% chance that 8th and 9th will finish equal on competition points (which is up about 2% points), a 20% chance that 8th and 10th will, and a 7% chance that 8th and 11th will.

There’s also about a 41% chance that the double-chance in the Finals will be determined by percentage (which is roughly unchanged).

WINS TO MAKE The 8

Based on the Standard Methodology, the estimates of team chances of playing Finals should they finish on only 11 wins still mostly lie in the 10% to 25% range, although they are a little higher for the Cats, Lions, Pies, and Dons, and a little lower for St Kilda. Team chances still also mostly lie in the 75% to 90% range should a team record 12 wins, although they are somewhat lower for Fremantle, St Kilda and Adelaide. St Kilda, in fact, is not much better than a 50:50 proposition to play finals even if they win 8 of their remaining 12 games.

TEAM DEPENDENCIES IN FINALS CHANCES

Next, let’s review the dependencies in the estimated Finals chances of the five teams now estimated to have between a 25% and a 75% unconditional chance of playing Finals according to the Standard Methodology.

Using the arrow lengths as a proxy for dependence, we see that:

  • The Dockers’ are about equally dependent on the Eagles’, Swans’ and Tigers’ chances

  • The Giants’ are about equally dependent on the Swans’ and Tigers’

  • The Tigers’ are most dependent on the Eagles’, Giants’ and Dockers’

  • The Swans’ are most dependent on the Eagles’, Giants’ and Dockers’

  • The Eagles’ chances are about equally dependent on the Swans’, Tigers’, and Dockers’

HOW MANY WINS TO FINISH WHERE

Now a look at what the Standard Methodology shows for the joint distribution of number of wins and final ladder position for each team.

WINS FOR A PARTICULAR LADDER POSITION

And, finally, an update on the distribution of wins associated with each ladder position.

It’s still the case that 12 wins rather than 11 is more likely to be associated with the team finishing 8th, and that 14 wins rather than 13 or 15 wins will be associated with 4th spot on the final home-and-away ladder.

GAME IMPORTANCE

Finally, let’s take a look at how the Standard Methodology estimates the importance of each of the remaining 146 games (see this blog for details about how these are calculated).

Here is the list of the 25 most important games in terms of their estimated influence on the composition of the finalists.

Richmond is still involved in 9 of the Top 25, and GWS still in 8. West Coast and Sydney are involved in 6, and Essendon in 4. Only four teams now - North Melbourne, Collingwood, Melbourne, and Western Bulldogs are currently not involved in any of the estimated Top 25.