2021 : Simulating the Finals before Week 3

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Today we take a look at the results of the final MoSHBODS-based simulation for the season.

METHODOLOGY

As noted previously, broadly speaking the simulations of the Finals use the same methodology that was used in the simulations of the home-and-away season, including the manner in which home ground advantage is estimated.

Home Ground Advantage estimates or, in MoSHBODS’ terms, Venue Performance Values (VPVs), are handled a little differently in Finals than they are in home-and-away games in that multipliers are applied to them as follows

  • In Finals other than the Grand Final played in a team’s home state, the same VPVs are used as would have been the case if the game were played in the home-and-away season

  • In Finals other than the Grand Final played in other than a team’s home state, the VPVs are doubled

  • In Grand Finals, the VPVs are multiplied by 0.25

RESULTS

In this first chart we simply look at the estimated probabilities for each of the 8 Finalists going out in a particular week of the Finals, for four of whom now we have absolute certainty.

Focussing solely on the Grand Final, Melbourne are now rated about 6-in-10 chances to make that Grand Final, and 7-in-20 chances for the Flag. For the other teams, we have Port Adelaide as about 2-in-3 chances to play in the Grand Final, and 3-in-10 chances to win it, Geelong as 2-in-5 chances to play in the Grand Final, and 1-in-5 chances to win it, and Western Bulldogs as 1-in-3 chances to play in the Grand Final, and 3-in-20 chances to win it.

Drilling down a level on the 50,000 replicates, we can analyse the paths to elimination followed by each team, and these are summarised in the chart below.

Melbourne remains the only team more likely to win than lose a Grand Final, should they get there, while Geelong are, overall, roughly equally as likely to win it as to lose it.

Lastly, let’s look at what the replicates reveal about possible Grand Final matchups.

So, we have, approximately, the following chances for each of the four possible Grand Final matchups:

  • Melbourne v Port Adelaide: 4-in-10

  • Melbourne v Western Bulldogs: 1-in-5

  • Geelong v Port Adelaide: 2-in-7

  • Geelong v Western Bulldogs: 1-in-8