2018 : Simulating the Final Ladder After Round 6

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Updated final home and away ladder simulations appear below.

(For details on the methodology, see this post from earlier.)

In terms of expected wins, the week's big gainers were:

  • Sydney (+1.2)
  • Richmond (+1.0)
  • Port Adelaide (+1.0)
  • Melbourne (+0.8)

while the big losers were:

  • North Melbourne (-1.2)
  • Geelong (-1.1)
  • Collingwood (-1.0)
  • Essendon (-0.9)

Nine teams, again, have an estimated better than 50% chance of making the Final 8, but only seven now have a better than 25% chance of finishing Top 4.

GAME IMPORTANCE

Here's the updated list of the 30 most important games remaining in the fixture on the basis of their expected impact of all 18 teams' finals chances.

Games that were also on the Top 30 list last week are marked with an asterisk. Twelve of the 28 games that were on last week's list and that weren't Round 6 games are still on the list.

Looking just at the next few rounds, we have the following counts of Top 30 games:

  • Round 7: 1
  • Round 8: 1
  • Round 9: 1
  • Round 10: 2