Another pretty good week for WoSHBODS, with a Margin MAE just above the season average at 19.6 points per game, a Totals MAE of 21.4 points per game, a fifth consecutive positive LPS, and a 7.5 from 9 result on accuracy, all of which has led to the table below.
Read MoreBelow are WoSHBODS’ forecasts for Round 10 of the current AFLW season.
Read MoreAnother solid week for WoSHBODS, with season second-bests for Margin MAE (14.3 points per game), Totals MAE (9.7 points per game), and LPS, and a 7 from 9 result on accuracy, all of which has led to the table below.
Read MoreBelow are WoSHBODS’ forecasts for Round 9 of the current AFLW season.
Read MoreA very good week for WoSHBODS, with a season low Margin MAE of 13.0 points per game, a Totals MAE of 15.3 points per game, a season high LPS, and the first 9 from 9 result on accuracy, all of which has led to the table below.
Read MoreBelow are WoSHBODS’ forecasts for Round 8 of the current AFLW season.
Read MoreAnother fairly good week from WoSHBODS, with a Margin MAE of 18.8 points per game, a Totals MAE of 12.1 points per game, a hugely positive LPS, and a 7 from 9 result on accuracy, all of which has led to the table below.
Read MoreBelow are WoSHBODS’ forecasts for Round 7 of the current AFLW season.
Read MoreMuch better this week from WoSHBODS, with a Margin MAE of 16.7 points per game, a Totals MAE of 17.6 points per game, a hugely positive LPS, and a 7 from 9 result on accuracy, all of which has led to the table below.
Read MoreBelow are WoSHBODS’ forecasts for Round 6 of the current AFLW season.
Read MoreSome big numbers this week for WoSHBODS on Margin MAE (25.2 points per game) and Totals MAE (23.8 points per game), a highly negative LPS thanks mainly to the Tigers upset win over the Lions, but 7 from 9 on accuracy
Read MoreBelow are WoSHBODS’ forecasts for Round 5 of the current AFLW season.
Read MoreA good round for WoSHBODS on Margin MAE (17.8 points per game) and Totals MAE (16.8 points per game), but just 3.5 from 9 on accuracy and a negative LPS
Read MoreBelow are WoSHBODS’ forecasts for Round 3 of the current AFLW season.
Read MoreAnother good round for WoSHBODS with a Margin MAE of 24 points per game, a Totals MAE of 22.5 points per game, a positive LPS, and a 7.5 from 9 performance on accuracy, which takes it to the cumulative result shown below.
Read MoreBelow are WoSHBODS’ forecasts for Round 3 of the current AFLW season.
Read MoreA solid second round for WoSHBODS with excellent Margin and Total MAEs, a positive LPS, and a 6 from 9 performance on accuracy.
Read MoreBelow are WoSHBODS’ forecasts for Round 2 of the current AFLW season, now informed by 9 games of additional relevant history and based on the latest Team Ratings and Venue Performance Values.
Read MoreA reasonable start to the season for WoSHBODS, though not on the accuracy front where it managed just 4.5 from 9.
Read MoreLast year I started modelling AFLW, using much the same approach as I’ve used for the men’s game for some time, which includes Elo-style team ratings that allow for forecasts of team scores, game totals, game margins, and victory probability estimates.
Previously, I’ve posted these forecasts only on Twitter, For the upcoming season, I’m going to post them here, too.
The underlying model I’ve built for the purpose is a version of MoSHBODS, which I’ve recalibrated based on the history of the AFLW. That model is called WoSHBODS, and it has produced the following forecasts for Round 1 of the new season.
MAFL is a website for ...
Click on the envelope
Copyright © 2006-2023, Tony Corke. All rights reserved.
