AFLW 2024 - Simulations After Round 8
/In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Round 7 and, once again, project the final home-and-away season ladder and the subsequent Finals series.
The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.
Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.
The results this week are as shown below.
These results suggest that:
IN THE HOME AND AWAY SEASON
North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Brisbane, and Adelaide are all certainties to make the Finals, and Richmond and Fremantle virtual certainties. They all make Finals in every or almost every replicate. Port Adelaide are also strong chances for Finals.
Carlton, Sydney, Western Bulldogs, GWS, Collingwood, and Gold Coast are all virtual certainties to miss the Finals. They made Finals in none of the 10,000 replicates.
St Kilda are about $11 propositions to play Finals, Geelong $100, and West Coast $200.
IN FINALS
North Melbourne are heavy favourities to win the Grand Final, with Brisbane, Hawthorn, and Adelaide all roughly equal second favourites but most likely to go out in a Preliminary Final.
Richmond and Fremantle are most likely to go out in a Semi Final, and Essendon, Port Adelaide, and Melbourne in an Elimination Final (should they make Finals at all)
