AFLW 2024 - Simulations After Round 11
/In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Week 1 of the Finals and project the outcomes for the remainder of the Finals series.
The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.
Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.
The results this week are as shown below.
These results suggest that:
North Melbourne remain heavy favourities to win the Grand Final, with Brisbane and Adelaide both roughly equal second favourites but most likely to go out in a Preliminary Final
Hawthorn is on the fourth line and also most likely to go out in a Preliminary Final
Fremantle and Port Adelaide are most likely to go out in a Semi Final and are assessed as about 170/1 and 435/1 chances for the Flag
