AFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 12

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Below is a summary of the latest simulation results for the AFLW, produced using a version of the methodology described in this blog post.

WoSHBODS, broadly speaking, orders the remaining teams in terms of Flag chances, as follows:

  • 1-in-3: Adelaide and North Melbourne

  • 1-in-4: Brisbane

  • 1-in-16: Geelong

The market currently orders them this way:

  • 32%: Brisbane

  • 28%: Adelaide

  • 27%: North Melbourne

  • 13%: Geelong

In percentage point terms, the largest differences are for Adelaide (about 8% points), then Brisbane and Geelong (both about 6% points).