AFLW 2023 - Simulations After Round 1

In this blog there are the first ever WoSHBODS simulations for the remainder of the season and for the Finals.

They use the same hot sims methodology that I’ve employed over on the men’s site and that I’ve described in this blog post, with suitably reparameterised negative binomial and beta binomial models for simulating individual game results.

They are also subject to very high levels of uncertainty because they’re based on relatively few historical games, and because the women’s game is developing rapidly and at different paces across teams.

Anyway, with that caveat in place, here’s what we have for the home and away season.

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So, roughly speaking, WoSHBODS currently groups the teams as folows:

• Tier 1 (80%+ chances to play Finals): Melbourne, Geelong, North Melbourne, Adelaide, and Richmond

• Tier 2 (50 - 60% chances to play Finals): Carlton, Brisbane, and Essendon

• Tier 3 (25 - 30% chances to play Finals): Sydney, Fremantle, Gold Coast, and Collingwood

• Tier 4 (15 - 20% chances to play Finals): St Kilda, West Coast, Port Adelaide

• Tier 5 (5 - 10% chances to play Finals): Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, and GWS

And, here’s what we have for the Finals.

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