The WoSHBODS algorithm is very sensitive to Round 1 results - far moreso than MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS - on the basis that history strongly suggests that the previous season’s performances are somewhat less relevant in the following AFLW season than they are in AFLM.

Somewhat comfortingly, these largish adjustments have led to forecasts with seven of the nine WoSHBODS-favoured teams also being the bookmaker favourites.

WAGERING

Buoyed by the improved alignment between WoSHBODS and the experts, I felt it was obviously time to exploit any differences, however small, between WoSHBODS and the experts.

Wagering will largely follow what we’ve been doing on the men’s side this year (hopefully only in method and not in results). The details are as follows:

• There will be three Funds with the following weights

  • Line Fund: 65%

  • Head-to-Head Fund: 25%

  • Over/Under Fund: 10%

• Fractional Kelly-staking will be used. In other words, wager sizes will be determined by estimated edge. To account for the (my?) greater uncertainty in AFLW wagering, a one-tenth fraction will be applied so, for example, if the estimated edge is 10%, 1% of the relevant Fund will be wagered. By way of comparison, for AFLM wagering this season I’ve been using a one-fifth fraction.

• One difference in AFLW wagering will be that overs betting will be allowed in games where rain is forecast, but only if the estimated overlay is more than 6 points.

With all that in mind, the Ready Reckoner below shows what wagers we have and what the various possible results will mean for the Combined Porfolio with weights as described above.

In terms of risk (as measured by the difference between the best- and worst-case results for a given team), we have this week:

• High Risk: GWS (10.8%), Melbourne (7.6%), Adelaide (6.1%)

• Medium Risk: St Kilda (4.8%), North Melbourne (2.5%), Port Adelaide (2.2%)

• Low Risk: Gold Coast (1.1%), Collingwood (0.2%)

Shenanigans were fairly minimal on AFLW betting this week, with the only differences between what we finished with and what we wanted being:

• Melbourne: Wanted 4.6% @ $1.88 +2.5. Settled for 3.9% @ $1.88 +2.5 and 0.4% @ $1.87 +1.5

• GWS: Wanted 5.9% @ $1.88 +13.5. Settled for 3.9% @ $1.88 +13.5 and 2% @ $1.87 +13.5