AFLW Round 11 Results - Aggressive Regression
/Only one of the four favourites won this week, and WoSHBODS, having gone favourite-heavy - usually not a bad strategy in Finals - therefore tipped just 1 winner. It also recorded a Margin MAE of 28.2 points per game and a Totals MAE of 11 points per game. That took it to a season long 71% accuracy, 18.9 Margin MAE, and 18.6 Totals MAE.
WAGERING
On wagering, Investors recorded their largest single-round loss this week, the 4.9c loss topping last week’s 2.7c. The only collects were a head-to-head bet on Geelong and a single overs wager.
That left the Combined Portfolio up by 9.7c on the season, that from a +9.8% ROI on a 0.99 turn.
Overs/Unders betting aside, which accounts for only 5% of the Combined Portfolio, we can review the wagering performance of the two main Funds by making separate calculations for home versus away status, and favouritism versus underdog status, which we do in the table at right.
Line betting on away teams remains attractively lucrative, as does head-to-head betting on underdogs.
