AFLW 2024 - Round 10 Results - A Small Giants Loss

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WoSHBODS tipped all nine winners this week, and also recorded a Margin MAE of just 16.1 points per game and a Totals MAE of 17.4 points per game.

Those numbers took its season-long figures to 71 from 99 (71%) for accuracy, 19.5 for Margin MAE, and 17.5 for Totals MAE.

I genuinely could not be happier with those results, especially given how the men’s forecasts went this year.

TEAM STATISTICS

In the table at right, we have our final look at the MAEs by team for WoSHBODS, and find that Adelaide, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, West Coast, and Richmond have ended the home and away season as the teams with the easiest margins to predict, and Melbourne and Carlton have ended as the teams with the hardest margins to predict.

The all-team average finishes at 19.5 points per game, and Richmond and Collingwood as the only Victorian teams amongst seven with an MAE under that average.

With a rank correlation of only +0.11, there is only a very week relationship between teams’ ladder positions and the ranking of teams based on the precision with which WoSHBODS is forecasting their game margins.



Next, the log probability scores associated with each team, based on the probability estimates that WoSHBODS has attached to them in each game.

Here we find that WoSHBODS has done best with North Melbourne, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Brisbane, and Hawthorn, and worst with Carlton, Melbourne, and Geelong, the latter three being the only teams that have generated negative log probability score for WoSHBODS across the home-and-away season.

Here, with a rank correlation of +0.41, there is something of a positive relationship between teams’ ladder positions and their ranking based on the LPS from WoSHBODS’ probability estimates.

WAGERS

WoSHBODS registered small losses on the Head-to-Head and Line Funds, and a small profit on the Over/Under Fund, which meant a small overall loss of 1.9c. That would, instead, have been a profit but for the last minute Port Adelaide goal that turned our $8 head-to-head into a loser.

The Combined Portfolio is now up by 38c on the season from a +21% ROI on a 1.8 turn.

TEAM DASHBOARD

The Dashboard metric rankings finally most highly correlated with the competition ladder are:

  • Goals Conceded per Game: +0.97

  • Points Conceded per Game: +0.96

  • MoS Win Production Function: +0.95

  • Scoring Shots Conceded per Game: +0.94

  • % of Quarters Won: +0.91

  • Points Scored per Game: +0.85

  • Q2 Performances: +0.84

  • Goals Scored per Game: +0.83

  • Own Scoring Shots per Game: +0.83

  • Q3 Performances: +0.79

  • Q4 Performances: +0.71

The metric least correlated is:

  • Own Scoring Shot Conversion: +0.34

All of which is reasonable evidence to conclude, I think, that the 2024 season has rewarded defence more than offence.

And, lastly, below is the full extended version of the Team Dashboard.

It reveals that:

  • Geelong miss Finals with a 110 percentage

  • North Melbourne record at least 1 goal per game more than any other team and concede at least 1 goal per game fewer at just 2.8 per game.

  • Fremantle (5th) and Essendon (8th) record fewer goals than Geelong (10th), St Kilda (11th), and Sydney (15th)

  • The Top 8 teams on the ladder are the 8 teams that conceded fewest goals

  • The only undefeated team is North Melbourne, who didn’t lose a Q2 qnd outscored their opponents 3.3:1 in Q1s, 3.8:1 in Q2s, 4.8:1 in Q3s, and 1.9:1 in Q4s.

  • Fremantle have outscored their opponents by over 2.6:1 in Q4s, but were outscored by about 1.7:1 in Q1s.

  • Geelong outscored their opponents by 2.2:1 in Q1s, but were outscored in all three other quarters.

  • Collingwood have been outscored by their opponents by more than 7:1 in Q3s

  • North Melbourne have converted at 55% and allowed their opponents to convert at only 41%, and have generated 16 Scoring Shots per game while allowing their opponents to generate only about 6.

  • Carlton have converted at only 39% and allowed their opponents to convert at 48%, and have generated only just over 8 Scoring Shots per game while allowing their opponents to generate over 14.

  • GWS have scored only 16% of their points in Q2s, and Collingwood only 10% in Q3s

  • Melbourne have scored in Q1 39% of all the points they’ve scored, and only 18% in Q2s. Carlton have recorded 34% in Q1s, and Essendon 34% in Q2s.

  • GWS have converted at 35% in Q1s and 63% in Q4s.

  • West Coast have converted at 60% in Q2s and 29% in Q4s.

  • Melbourne have converted at 65% in Q1s and 41% in Q4s.

  • North Melbourne have allowed their opponents to convert at 65% in Q4s, and Western Bulldogs at 64% in Q2s.

  • Essendon have allowed their opponents to convert at only 25% in Q3s.