Save for the last game of the round, which looks likely to make a strong case for a mercy rule in AFL, it’s a fairly good looking set of games on offer this week. Six are expected to be won by around 3 goals or less, and two more by around 4 goals, which you think might provide some forecasters with an opportunity to be bold contrarians.
Let’s see.
Read MoreMoSSBODS moved only two teams this week, swapping GWS into 11th at the expense of Carlton, while MoSHBODS moved eight teams, which included moving Geelong into 2nd and slipping Adelaide into third, thereby aligning the two Systems’ Top 3 as Dogs, Cats, and Crows.
The multi-spot movers on MoSHBODS were Collingwood and Brisbane Lions, both slipping two spots, and Hawthorn, climbing three spots.
Read MoreIn a season where favouritism has been particularly predictive, it’s not surprising that seven of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend, which, coupled with the continued low levels of contrarianism, saw correct tips scores of seven, excepting Home Sweet Home’s three.
That left MoSHPlay_Marg still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best in 1st, and ENS_Linear still three tips futher back from BKB in 3rd.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.6 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 131.9 from 188 (70%).
Read MoreJust a quick MoSHPlay update for the Lions v Swans game (since it turns out that Tom Doedee is not a debutant - he’s just been missing for a while).
No other changes, including for tonight’s game.
MoSHPlay is sticking with Pies by 3 points and now has preliminary opinions about the remainder of the round.
MoSHPlay is currently on Pies by 3 points.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is a relatively small 1.7 points per game, and there are only two games where the difference exceeds 3.5 points. Overall, the twins have the same average expected total, and that average is 3 points below the bookmakers’.
Read MoreIt’s a sad looking nine games this week, with only one expected to finish with a single-digit margin, five expected to finish with a margin in the 20s, and the remaining three expected to finish with roughly 8, 10, and 11-goal margins.
Forecasting will be mostly about the margins then.
Read MoreMoSSBODS left the Dogs at 1st this weekend, but relegated the Pies to 4th while allowing the Cats and the Crows to fill the gap. It also swapped Melbourne into 8th ahead of Fremantle, and Carlton into 11th ahead of GWS.
MoSHBODS restored the Dogs to 1st place at the expense of the Crows, and left the Cats in 3rd. Further down, it moved the Lions into 5th at the expense of Gold Coast and Hawthorn. moved the Dees and Dockers up a spot, dropped GWS down two spots, and flipped the Roos into 16th ahead of the Tigers.
That meant that MoSSBODS finished with a Top 5 of Dogs, Cats, Crows, Pies, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with Dogs, Crows, Cats, Pies, and Lions.
Read MoreEight of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend, which, now coupled with the customarily low levels of contrarianism, saw correct tips scores of eight, excepting Consult the Ladder’s seven.
That left MoSHPlay_Marg still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best in 1st, and ENS_Linear still three tips futher back from BKB in 3rd.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 7.9 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 125.4 from 179 (70%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 58 points.
MoSHPlay sticks at Dogs by 25 points, and now has preliminary views about the rest of the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view for tomorrow’s game is Dogs by 25 points.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is a moderate 2 points per game, but there are four games where the difference equals or exceeds 3 points. Nonetheless, all four forecasters once again have very similar average expected total scores with MoSHBODS lowest and Sportsbet highest.
Read MoreWe’ve nine home team favourites this week with their expected victory margins ranging from 8 to 50 points. Three home teams are expected to win by 8 to 13 points, two more by between 22 and 29 points, and the remaining four by between 39 and 50 points.
With Home Sweet Home out of the contrarian market, who will step up?
Read MoreMoSSBODS left the Dogs and Pies in 1st and 2nd this weekend, and pushed the Lions back to 5th, behind the Cats and the Crows. Further down, it moved the Dockers up a couple of spots into 8th and dropped Sydney into the vacancy, and it swapped the Saints into 13th ahead of the Power.
MoSHBODS moved the Crows into top spot, relegating the Dogs into 2nd, and moved the Cats ahead of the Pies into 3rd. It also swapped the Suns into 5th at the expense of the Lions and, further down, moved the Tigers into 16th ahead of the Roos.
That meant that MoSSBODS finished with a Top 5 of Dogs, Pies, Cats, Crows, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with Crows, Dogs, Cats, Pies, and Suns.
Read MoreSeven of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend (and an eighth had to defy fourth quarter history to lower the count by one), which, coupled once again with relatively low levels of contrarianism, saw correct tips scores of sevens, excepting Home Sweet Home’s six.
That left MoSHPlay_Marg still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best in 1st, and ENS_Linear still three tips futher back from BKB in 3rd.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.9 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 117.5 from 170 (69%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 39 points.
MoSHPlay has it as Dogs by 53 points and Giants by 13 points (and has preliminary views on the remainder of the round)
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view on tomorrow night’s game is Hawks by 16 points.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is a relatively high 3 points per game, and there are four games where the difference equals or exceeds that value, and four more where it is between 2 and 3 points. Nonetheless, all four forecasters once again have very similar average expected total scores.
Read MoreAll but three of this week’s games could easily get ugly, at least if bookmaker-expected margins are anything to go by. They have four contests being settled by about 7 goals or more, and two more being settled by about 5 goals. The remaining three games are all expected to have single-digit margins, which at least offers some hope for the round.
How much contrarianism then, I hear you ask. Let’s find out.
Read MoreDespite losses for both, the Dogs and the Pies continue to fill the Top 2 spots on both Systems at the end of Round 19 as MoSSBODS leaves untouched its Top 10 teams and MoSHBODS its Top12.
In fact, the only changes this week were GWS taking 11th from Carlton on MoSSBODS, and St Kilda taking 13th from Port Adelaide on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreSix of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend, which, coupled as usual with relatively low levels of contrarianism, saw correct tips scores of sixes, excepting Consult The Ladder, which managed eight, and MoSHPlay_Marg. which managed only five.
All of which meant that MoSHPlay_Marg finished the round now leading Bookie Knows Best by only two tips, with ENS_Linear still three tips behind Bookie Knows Best in 3rd.
The all-Tipster score came in at 6.1 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 110.6 from 161 (69%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at the Pies by 3 goals.
MoSHPlay is staying with the Cats by 34 points but has some slightly different, but still preliminary, views on the two other Sunday games.
MoSHPlay is staying with the Giants by 4 goals and now has preliminary opinions about the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is GWS by 24 points in tomorrow night’s game.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is 2.3 points per game, and there are three games where the difference exceeds 3 points, and one more where it is between 2 and 3 points. All four forecasters once again have very similar average expected total scores.
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