Not a Round for the Highlights Reel

Sometimes, where sport's concerned, it's all about playing for the honourable draw  - though this is a concept that's clearly foreign to the Americans, who'd rather have 9 overtimes than see their team split the points  - and that's what it felt like for MAFL for most of this weekend.

Regrettably, most Investors finished with little honour and a little less cash.

Those with the Recommended Fund dropped just over 4% on the weekend, leaving them down about two-thirds of a percent on the season. Most other Investors dropped between about 3.5% and 9.5% across the weekend but still finished the weekend at least a little ahead. The exception was MIN#017 who made a smidge over 6.5% on the weekend to leave them down a tick over 3.7% on the season.

What hurt most Investors was the combined performance of the Hope, Chi-squared and Line Redux Funds that, amongst them, managed 0 wins from 6 bets, contrasting sharply with New Heritage's 5 from 6 and Prudence's 5 from 5.

Almost all tipsters performed well this weekend. In particular, CTL tipped the card and moved to joint-leadership on 42 from 64 alongside Shadow and BKB who themselves tipped 7 from 8. Others to tip 7 from 8 were Silhouette (now on 41), ELO (41), Ride Your Luck (40) and Chi (38). The round's worst tipsters were STM II and EI II who both managed just 4 from 8.

These generally strong tipping performances have left 8 of our 13 tipsters in profit (and 1 more at breakeven) on level-stake wagering across this round and last, and 5 tipsters at profit across the whole season.

On Line Betting, ELO managed 5 from 8, taking it to +1.72 units for the season and Chi managed just 4 from 8 to move to -9.33 units for the season.

Eight Games, Seventeen Bets, No Promises

This week, again, we find ourselves just 24 hours from the first ball-up and without a full set of line markets. Currently, TAB Sportsbet are silent on what they'll be offering for the Freo v Hawks game, but I'm guessing it'll be Freo -6.5 points in which case we'll have no interest.

Not that we're short on interest this week. As we did last week, we've at least one wager in every game. Indeed, so eager have the various Funds been this week to ensure that we have comprehensive coverage, two of them have opted for wagers on competing teams in the same game.

So then, what have we got?

The New Heritage Fund has again found 6 wagers this week, virtually all of it on teams priced at $1.25 or under, the exceptions being a minuscule wager on Carlton at $1.55 and a slightly larger wager on Adelaide at $3.30. It's this larger wager on the Crows that Prudence has opted to cover by placing a slightly bigger wager on the Lions. In total, we've just over one-half of the New Heritage Fund at risk.

Prudence's 4 other wagers - aside from the Lions - are on the same teams that New Heritage has endorsed. The largest of them won't be resolved until the final game of the round: 6.5% on the Saints.

Next, the Hope Fund, our in-form Fund, has 2 bets this week, a modest wager on Freo at $1.83 and a far bigger and bolder wager on the Dees at $5.00, our first (and let's hope near to last) wager on this most hapless of teams.

Chi-squared has tentatively re-entered the wagering fray, with a sole but confident outlay on Freo up against the Premiers.

Finally, the Line Redux Fund has found 3 teams to favour with its affections this week, 2 of them giving start (Sydney and St Kilda) and 1 of them receiving start (Collingwood).

For those with the Recommended Portfolio, the largest profit would come with a Melbourne or Freo win, though a Sydney or a St Kilda win of sufficient magnitude to cover the respective spread would also be welcomed. The largest potential losses would come with a St Kilda or a Sydney head-to-head loss. 

Turning next to tips:

• Fremantle are favoured 8-5 over the Hawks, though Chi has the Dockers as just 4 point favourites, making this game one of his two Games of the Round (Game of the Rounds?).
• The Bulldogs are favoured 11-2 over Melbourne, though the Dees can count amongst their supporters the highly-performed STM II.
• Geelong are, yet again, favoured 13-0, this time over the Roos. ELO has Geelong covering the 46.5 point spread.
• The Lions are also unanimous favourites, they against the Crows. ELO is predicting just a 9 point win for the Lions though, making this game its Game of the Round.
• Sydney are favoured 7-6 over the Eagles. STM II is once again alone amongst the tipsters-of-note, this time in supporting the heavy underdog West Coast.
• Port Adelaide are the unanimous tips facing the Tigers. Neither Chi nor ELO though have Port covering the 26.5 point spread.
• Collingwood are favoured 7-6 over Carlton. Chi is opting for the Blues by 4 points, making this his other Game of the Round. BKB is also on the Blues, though STM II and Shadow have sided with the underdog Pies.
• St Kilda are favoured 12-1 over the Dons, with EI II, a tipster 4 tips off the pace, the Dons' sole friend.

Finally, on Line Betting:

• Chi's line bets are Hawthorn, Melbourne, Kangaroos, Adelaide, Sydney, Richmond, Collingwood and Essendon.
• ELO's line bets are Hawthorn, Melbourne, Geelong, Adelaide, West Coast, Richmond, Collingwood and St Kilda.

(For those of you who've made it this far, there's a new blog up on www.mafl-stats.blogspot.com looking at how the competition ladder will finally look if our MARS Ratings are vaguely accurate.)

Profit For Most

Of the fifteen bets we had on the weekend, 9 of them were successful.

The New Heritage Fund landed 3 from 6, dropping 16.7c in the process to drive its price down to 89.7c. Carlton's narrow loss to Freo was most painful for this Fund, accounting for 11.8c of the drop.  Prudence recorded a 3 from 5 result, but still dropped by 1.8c, leaving it now priced at 97.1c. It, like New Heritage, suffered most from Carlton's loss, dropping 3.4c on that result alone.

The stories for the two remaining active Funds were far more positive.

Line Redux managed only 1 from 2, but had more riding on its winning bet than it did on its losing bet and so finished up 2.4c on the weekend, driving its price to $1.084. The Hope Fund, quite simply, sparkled, landing 2 from 2, both underdogs, lifting its share price by 33.6c to $1.391. 

(The remaining Fund, the Chi-Squared Fund, did not wager this week and remains at 93.3c.)

All that activity generated additional net profit on the weekend for all Investors except MIN#017. The Recommended Portfolio rose by 1.74c, leaving it now up 3.43% on the season.

On tipping, Follow the Streak had the best performance, bagging 6 from 8 for the third time this season. ELO, in contrast, struggled, backing up its season-high of 7 last week with a season-low of 3 this week. Three tipsters are now joint leaders in our tipping competition - BKB, Shadow and STM II - all on 35 from 56 (62.5%).

So far this season, level-stake betting on four tipsters would have been profitable: STM II, Shadow, Silhouette and EI II (in decreasing order of net profit). EI II has been profitable despite managing only tipping correctly on 31 occasions by virtue of landing teams such as Fremantle and Essendon at juicy odds this week and 5 other teams priced at better than $2 in weeks gone by.

In the wagering analysis of the heuristic algorithms that I carried out looking at previous seasons' data, you might recall that I found that level-stake betting on every tip was a profitable proposition provided that we started in Round 7 of each year. Accordingly, I've now added another column to the table tracking the heuristics' wagering performance, headed "From R7", in which we'll record the result of following this approach. 

We've A Stake In All Eight

Apologies for the delay in uploading the bets and tips this week, but it wasn't until 7:20 tonight that two of the line markets were posted, one of which I was fairly certain - correctly  as it turned out - we'd have an interest in.

And what an array of bets we've wound up with. For the first time that I can remember, we've a wager in every game, this despite the fact that the Chi-Squared Fund has found nothing at all to its liking (which is surprising, since 'fussy' is not a word I'd be tempted to use about Chi).

The New Heritage Fund has found 6 wagers, on teams ranging from the laughingly short-priced Cats at $1.08 to the narrowly-underdogged (watch the spellchecker gag on that word) Tigers at $2.00. All up, it's put over 60% of the Fund at risk, so a round choc-full o' upsets could prove hard to digest.

Prudence has plumped for 5 wagers, mirroring the New Heritage Fund in all but its wager on the Crows.

The Hope Fund has 2 bets, 1 on the Dons at $5, and another on the Roos at $2.65, thus ensuring our collective Funds' coverage of all 8 contests.

Lastly, the Line Redux Fund has lavished 5% on the Cats who are giving 39.5 start at $1.90, and another 2.06% on Richmond receiving 6.5 start but priced at just $1.85.

Turning next to tips:

• Hawthorn are favoured 8-5 over Essendon, though our top 5 tipsters favour the Dons 3-2.
• Geelong are favoured 13-0 over Sydney. Fitting, I guess, for a team at $1.08.
• The Lions are favoured 11-2 over Richmond. One of the Tigers' 2 supporters is, however, our in-form tipster, ELO, and Chi is tipping the Lions by only 2 points (his Game of the Round), so the Tigers aren't without hope.
• Port Adelaide are favoured 12-1 over the Roos. ELO has Port winning by a solitary point, making this its Game of the Round.
• Carlton are favoured 8-5 over Fremantle, including 4-1 favouritism for the Blues amongst our top 5 tipsters (with STM II the dissenter).
• Adelaide are favoured 7-6 over the Bulldogs. In this game the top 5 tipsters are split 3-2 in favour of the Crows.
• West Coast are favoured 9-4 over Melbourne, though Melbourne (yes, Melbourne) are favoured 3-2 amongst our top 5 tipsters.
• St Kilda are favoured 11-2 over Collingwood.

Finally, for what it's worth:

• Chi's line bets are Essendon, Sydney, Richmond, Roos, Fremantle, Adelaide, Melbourne and Collingwood.
• ELO's line bets are Essendon, Sydney, Richmond, Roos, Carlton, Adelaide, Melbourne and St Kilda.

I Blame the Eagles

Not a great weekend for most Investors, due largely, I'd contend, to the waywardness of the Eagles, whose 9.20 was insufficient to prevail over the Dockers' 7-fewer-scoring-shot 13.9. Put simply, the Eagles should have won. (Okay, okay ... perhaps the Hawks were a little lucky to win, but surely I'm as entitled as the next person to attribute good luck to superior foresight and bad luck to ... well, sheer bad luck.)

Most Investors suffered losses in the 1.5% to 2% range, though MIN#002 fared worst, losing 7.88% and MIN#017 fared far better, gaining 6.39%. The good news is that all Investors have made a profit so far this season.

On tipping, ELO had an extraordinary weekend, bagging 7 from 8, taking it to joint-leadership on 30 from 48, level with BKB (it was only a matter of time, wasn't it?), STM II, Shadow and Silhouette. Only 4 tips separate 1st from last now, with Chi, HSH, EI I and EI II filling the bottom places on 26 from 48.

In stark contrast with its tipping performance, ELO managed just 3 from 8 on line betting, moving it to 26 from 48 for the season. Chi. meantime, has recorded just 21 from 48 on line betting, meaning that betting against him would have been profitable whereas betting with him would not. Hmmm ... good thing he only bets head-to-head then.

** Please note that entries in the Pick the Ladder Competition are due by midnight this Wednesday. **

And Now The Contest Begins

This weekend, for Investors, everything changes. All Funds are now active and, as it happens, all Funds are active. New Heritage has four bets; Prudence has three; Chi-squared, Hope and Line Redux have two each. Only two games are wager-free - Port v Adelaide and Melbourne v Geelong - the first because Chi eventually opted for Port rather than Adelaide by 1 point, and the second because not even a MAFL Fund could hold its nose long enough to wager on the Dees at $11 up against the Cats.

In aggregate, a little over 15% of funds are in play for those with the Recommended portfolio.

West Coast and Brisbane, in particular, will carry the hopes of those with the Recommended portfolio. To a lesser extent, so too will Sydney and Hawthorn, the Roos and the Bulldogs.

Before I move on from wagering considerations I feel duty-bound to note that the Dees have now moved to $13 and the Cats to $1.01. In terms of the data I have, no team has ever previously been as slender-chanced as the Dees. Even at the original offer of $11, imagine what the Heritage Fund would have thrown at the Dees this weekend had this Fund still been active. (For old times' sake - whatever that means - I ran the Heritage Fund algorithm on the current round. It would have wagered almost 15% on the Dees as well as 7% on the Roos and 2% on the Bulldogs. I don't really miss the Heritage Fund.)

On the line market the Dees are only being given 58.5 start, which I think is a tad underdone when you consider that they received 75.5 points start last year in Round 3 when they were away to the Cats and at $12 and, more relevantly, 60.5 start in Round 19 when they were at home to the Cats and priced at just $10.

On tipping:

• Collingwood are favoured 12-1 over the Roos, and only Home Sweet Home is opting for the Roos. That said, both ELO and Chi have the Pies as only 2 point favourites, in ELO's case making this its Game of the Round.
• Carlton are 11-2 favourites over last year's premiers, Hawthorn. BKB is opting for Carlton because, with the Blues and the Hawks equal favourites at noon on Wednesday, BKB aligns itself with CTL's Carlton tip. (A couple of weeks back, when Freo and Adelaide were equal favourites, I forgot to apply this tie-breaking rule for BKB. I've since corrected this, giving BKB an Adelaide tip for this game - as it turned out, a correct tip.)
• West Coast are 8-5 favourites over Freo. All of our top 5 tipsters except STM II are with the Eagles.
• Essendon are 9-4 favourites over the Lions. BKB is the only top 5 tipster opting for the Lions.
• Port Adelaide are 7-6 favourites over Adelaide. Chi has vacillated over this game all week, swapping between Port by 1 point (with a 10%+ wager) and Adelaide by the same margin (but without a bet). Despite not having a wager (perhaps because of it), Chi has this as his Game of the Round. Amongst the top 5 tipsters only Silhouette is tipping Adelaide.
• Sydney are 8-5 favourites over Richmond. Amongst the top 5 tipsters only STM II is tipping Richmond.
• Geelong are 12-1 favourites over Melbourne. Once again, only Home Sweet Home feels compelled to support the underdog.
• St Kilda are 12-1 favourites over the Dogs, where, yet again, it's HSH that's out on its own.

On line betting, Chi's with the Roos, Carlton, West Coast, Essendon, Adelaide, Richmond, Melbourne and the Dogs; ELO's with the Roos, Hawthorn, West Coast, Essendon, Port Adelaide, Sydney, Melbourne and the Dogs.

Good Wagering, Hard Tipping

It'd be churlish to be disappointed about our wagering performance this weekend though it was only a stray goal from the Hawks that stood between our actual 3-2 performance and a far more impressive 4-1. Speaking of stray, the other losing bet was the Dogs, but no amount of alternative futuring could readily turn their performance into a victorious one.

So we finish the weekend with no Investor in the red and all but MIN#017 comfortably in the green.

Though we made money on the Funds' implicit tips, it was a tough weekend for our official tipsters, with 5 favourites losing. Our best tipsters - Silhouette, ELO and Home Sweet Home - managed just 4 from 8. (This week please note that I've added another column to the tipster performance summary on the right. It's headed "Return" and reflects the return that would have been achieved from a 1 unit wager on that tipster's tips.) 

Chi performed admirably on line betting, bagging 5 from 8, but this takes him to a no-better-than-chance 20 from 40 for the season. ELO slipped again, scoring just 3 from 8 this week, but remains profitable for the season with 23 from 40. (By the way, ELO has generally been profitable in seasons past if line wagers were placed only on those teams  predicted to win by 13.5 points or more after the handicap is taken into consideration. Following that strategy this year would have produced a 3.3 unit profit so far.)

If you're curious about the latest MARS Ratings, these are available on the MAFL Stats site. You'll see there that the 8 highest-ranked teams are, in order, Geelong, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Sydney, Adelaide and Carlton. Six of these teams are also in the top 8 of the competition ladder (which, by the way is also available on the MAFL-Stats site), the two differences being the inclusion of the Hawks and the Swans in the MARS Top 8 at the expense of Port Adelaide and Essendon.

We Now Have Hope

This week we ratchet up another level as the Hope Fund comes on stream and starts out with a couple of bold bets - 5.42% on Essendon @ $2.90 and 4.6% on the friendless Freo @ $2.25 - and one apparently safer bet of 2.59% on the Dogs @ $1.68.

The Line Redux Fund adds two more games to the list of those in which Investors have a financial interest by lobbing 5% at Hawthorn giving 22.5 start to West Coast, and another 5% at Geelong giving 38.5 start to Brisbane.

In total then, much as I'd foreshadowed on the site earlier in the week, we've about 12.6% of the Hope Fund and 10% of the Line Redux Fund at risk.

On tipping, the favourites are more heavily supported by our tipsters in just five of the eight matches. The details are as follows:

• St Kilda are favoured over Port Adelaide 10-3. ELO is tipping the Saints by just 2 points making this its Game of the Round.
• Collingwood are favoured over Essendon 8-5, though Chi and ELO are tipping only about a 1 goal margin.
• West Coast are favoured over Hawthorn 9-4 despite heavy Hawk victories being predicted by BKB, ELO and Chi.
• The Roos are favoured 13-0 over Richmond.
• Sydney are favoured 12-1 over Fremantle though Chi predicts the Swans by just 3 points making this his Game of the Round.
• Geelong are favoured 12-1 over the Lions, Easily Impressed II being the sole Lions adherent, a consequence of its successfully tipping them last weekend.
• The Bulldogs are favoured 12-1 over Carlton. In this game it's Easily Impressed I that's the outlier, here because Carlton won and the Dogs lost last weekend.
• Melbourne are favoured 7-6  over Adelaide.

Chi bagged 5 from 8 on line betting last weekend to take him to just 15 from 32 from the season. ELO managed just 4 from 8 but remains at a healthy 20 from 32 for the season. Chi's and ELO's Mean Absolute Prediction Errors reflect this difference in line betting performance: Chi's on 34.6 points per game and ELO's on 31.3 points per game, just 0.8 points behind BKB.

Chi's Line Bets are: Port Adelaide (probably - we've no market yet), Essendon, West Coast, Richmond, Fremantle, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs and Melbourne.

ELO's Line Bets are: St Kilda (again, probably), Essendon, Hawthorn, Kangaroos, Sydney, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs and Melbourne.

Pick the Teams' Finishing Order Competition

A while back I mentioned that we'd be running a competition this year in which the aim will be to predict the finishing order of all 16 teams. The winner will be the person whose predictions are closest to the actual ladder positions at the end of the home and away season.

Here are the logistics of the competition:

• Entry is free. (I was considering charging a nominal entry fee and using this to create a prize pool but I thought a free competition would encourage higher levels of participation.)
• To be eligible, entries must be received by me by midnight on Wednesday, May 6th. That means you'll be able to use the ladder as at the end of Round 6 as the basis for your predictions.
• An entry comprises a finishing order for all 16 AFL teams.
• Only one entry is allowed per person.
• Order will be determined by the Kendall's tau measure as described below.
• The final ladder positions for the teams will be those published on the www.afl.com.au site at the end of the home and away season.
• The prize? You'll gain the people's ovation and fame forever (with apologies to Iron Chef).

Okay, so that's the logistics. Now for some detail. (You can safely skip the remainder of this blog if you're not interested in how we'll decide on a winner.)

To judge the winner we need a measure of proximity for two rankings so that we can compare each entrant's predicted ranking with the ranking provided by the competition ladder. The statistical community has a number of such measures in its armoury, one of which is called Kendall's tau and this is the measure that I'll be using to determine whose predictions are closest to the final ladder.

Kendall's tau is based upon the notions of concordance and discordance. Imagine that, in my predictions, I've placed Team A above Team B. Then, if the end of season ladder has Team A finishing above Team B (with any number of teams in between), my rankings of Team A and B are said to be concordant with the final ladder. If instead, Team B finishes ahead of Team A, my rankings of Team A and B are then said to be discordant with the final ladder.

Now imagine that I considered every possible pair of teams and I counted the number of concordances and discordances in my rankings compared to the final ladder. Kendall's tau is defined as the difference between the number of concordances and the number of discordances, divided by the total number of possible pairs of teams.

The closer is Kendall's tau to 1, the closer my predictions match the final ladder; the closer it is to 0, the more random my predictions are relative to the final ladder; and the closer it is to -1, the closer my predictions are to a reverse ordering of the final ladder, an outcome that would surely be far more embarrassing than registering a zero. The winner of our competition will be the person with the greatest Kendall's tau.

A small example might help to clarify all this. So, let's assume that there were only six teams in the competition, imaginatively named A through F. Then, say I predicted they'd finish B, F, D, A, C, E but that they instead - with a commendable sense of order - actually finished A, B, C, D, E, F. 

Now, there are 15 possible pairs of teams that we can consider, and my predictions are concordant with the actual finishing order for 8 of these pairs (A&C, A&E, B&C, B&D, B&E, B&F, C&E and D&E) and discordant for 7 of them (A&B, A&D, A&F, C&D, C&F, D&F and E&F). My Kendall's tau would therefore be (8-7)/15 or about 0.07, which is barely better than the chance score of 0.

Somebody else who predicted a finishing order of B, A, D, E, C, F would, instead, register a Kendall's tau of 0.6, having just 3 discordances and 12 concordances. I think it's fairly apparent that this latter ordering is far closer to the actual ordering than was mine.

One of the nice properties of Kendall's tau is that it has a probabilistic interpretation. If the Kendall's tau calculated for your predictions is K then the probability of concordance between your predictions and the ladder for any two randomly chosen teams is (K+1)/2. So, for the example just presented where K was 0.6 this probability would be 0.8, which could also be derived by noting that there were 12 concordances in the 15 possible pairings and 12/15 = 0.8.

Not As Good As Last Week (or the Week Before)

What to make of all that then?

Firstly, the Line Redux Fund has stumbled for the first time this season, winning just 1 of 3 bets, but still leaving all Investors with exposure to this Fund in profit. This weekend's results take the Line Redux Fund to 6-4 for the season, perilously close to a chance result.

And it's not as if I can claim 'near-thing' status since the Lions lost by 26.5 points and the Hawks lost by 53.5 points on handicap betting. Not even the most tenuously tenured of coaches has attributed a 9 goal loss to nothing more than the proverbial 'bounce of the ball'.

Thank heavens for the Swans. For the second time this season they've won outright when we've backed them with start.

Investors with Hope Fund exposure please note that things warm up next weekend as the Hope Fund joins the Line Redux Fund and goes live. Over the past 4 weeks, had I given it its head, the Hope Fund would've made 2 or 3 bets each week (with, if I'm honest - which I'm pathologically inclined to be, often regardless of the consequences - only marginal success).

On tipping, the bag was also decidedly mixed. No tipster managed better than 4 from 8 and only 3 favourites saluted the judge, which leaves us in the very odd position where 3 tipsters - Shadow, Silhouette and Short Term Memory II - lead BKB by a tip and a half. How strange to find a tipster underpinned by a mindless heuristic and dedicated to a non-existent dog leading one of the finest football minds on the planet. Clearly in a post GFC, climate-changing world, all the normal societal rules have been suspended. Or something.

Please note that we're now only a couple of weeks away from the Pick the Finishing positions competition. Look out for details this week.

Three More: It's Getting to be a Habit

The Line Redux Fund has so far this season acted with restraint and discernment. This week we've more evidence of that first characteristic; let's hope we also witness more of the second.

All of which is a cryptic way to introduce the fact that we've three line bets this weekend:

• Brisbane, giving Collingwood 9.5 points start on Friday night at the Gabba
• Sydney, receiving 8.5 points start from Carlton on Saturday afternoon at the SCG
• Hawthorn, giving Port Adelaide 23.5 points start on Saturday at the G

The latter two of these bets represent our 2nd bets on Hawthorn and on Sydney (both of the previous bets were winners). 

Moving next to tipping, we have:

• Unanimous support for the Lions over Collingwood, though ELO has only a 3 point margin, making this its Game of the Round
• Carlton tipped 11-2 over Sydney
• Port Adelaide tipped 9-4 over the Hawks, with the 9 including all the top-ranked tipsters bar BKB
• Unanimous support for St Kilda and the prediction of a blowout by BKB, Chi and ELO
• Geelong tipped 11-2 over Adelaide
• Essendon tipped 9-4 over the Roos, with the 9 once again including all the top-ranked tipsters bar BKB, and Chi tipping the Roos but by only a point, making this his Game of the Round
• Melbourne tipped 7-6 over Richmond, with Easily Impressed II the only top-ranked tipster siding with the Tigers and even then only doing so because they were more lightly flogged last weekend than were the Dees
• The Western Bulldogs tipped 11-2 over West Coast

(Note that we're once again waiting for the line market to go up for one game. I'll include the details in Monday's results.)

Line Redux Bags another Two from Three

Two more successful line bets from three attempts has the Line Redux Fund now priced at $1.125 and leaves those Investors with Line Redux exposure up by between about 2.2 and 2.5%. Perhaps the best thing about the weekend's performance is that the two winning bets won easily and the losing bet missed out by just a little over a goal.

Investors please note that I've changed the way I'm displaying your portfolio performance (see table at right). Rather than repeating the same number a dozen or so times, I'm now showing a single performance statistic for the Recommended portfolio. If your MIN is not shown separately it's because you have the Recommended portfolio; accordingly, the performance of that portfolio is the performance of your portfolio.

We still have one more week of Line Redux Fund langour before the madness begins when, firstly, the Hope Fund will be unleashed and allowed to fling cash for the first time. I've been tracking the bets that all the currently dormant Funds would have made had they not been in a period of enforced abstinence, and the Hope Fund is one that I'm glad has been kept away from Sportsbet. (The other is Chi-squared.) I'm assuming that this is a 'calibration' period ...

On tipping we have the extraordinary situation whereby BKB trails, albeit only by half a tip. This is down to the sterling performances of Shadow, Silhouette and Short-Term Memory II, each of which bagged 7 from 8 this week (see table at right) missing only the Hawks' win over the Roos. Chi has continued his poor run of tipping and managed just 5 this weekend to leave him tied for last with Home Sweet Home on just 14 from 24.

ELO tipping was acceptable at 6 from 8 but its line betting performance fell away dramatically from last weekend's 7 as it managed just 4 from 8 this weekend, with one of those being Adelaide who were favoured to win on line betting given their 6.5 points start yet even money head-to-head price.

Round 3 offers another trio

Three line bets again this weekend, giving start in two and receiving it in one, much as we did last weekend.

In Thursday's game - where we've 'corrected' the AFL and listed the Pies as the true home team - we've taken Collingwood with 19.5 points, playing Geelong. This is our second wager on the Pies this season.

Next, on Saturday, we've taken St Kilda giving 20.5 points start to West Coast at Docklands.

Finally, on Sunday, we're on Port Adelaide giving 30.5 points start to the early-season spoon favourites, the Dees.

On tipping we have:

• Geelong favoured 9 to 4, with Chi opting for a narrow Collingwood victory in his Game of the Round. Both of the Easily Impressed heuristics have gone with Collingwood too, each on the basis of Collingwood's sizeable victory margin last weekend.
• St Kilda favoured 12 to 1, with Easily Impressed I the only dissenting voice.
• The Lions favoured 7 to 6, though Sydney's support includes our current top 3 tipsters in CTL, EI I and FTS. ETO also favours Sydney but by only 1 point making this one of its Games of the Round.
• Essendon, the underdogs, favoured 7 to 6. However, two of the top three tipsters are on Carlton.
• Port Adelaide the unanimous choice, though not quite favoured to cover the 30.5 points spread by Chi and ELO.
• The Kangaroos tipped by all but ELO. Chi, ELO and BKB all have it as a less than two goal margin though.
• Adelaide tipped by all but Home Sweet Home and a fence-sitting BKB. ELO has this as its other Game of the Round.
• Western Bulldogs the unanimous tip, but with Chi tipping them to fail to cover the spread and ELO tipping them to cover.

ELO, as noted previously, has started well on line betting. Its line betting picks this week are: Collingwood, St Kilda, Sydney, Essendon, Melbourne, Roos and the Bulldogs. (There's no line market yet for the Fremantle v Adelaide game.)

Another Acceptable Week

A solid if not spectacular Round 2 for Investors, with 2 wins from 3 line bets once again increasing the wealth of those Investors with Line Redux Fund exposure.

Adelaide, the sole losing bet, never looked like covering the 10.5 points spread, trailed in absolute terms at every change before going on to lose handily. Collingwood also made Investors nervous, taking 3 quarters to provide any sign of solace, and finished at 3QT just one-half a point in advance of the spread before going on to cover by plenty. Sydney, in contrast, were always round about in terms of the spread and looked home on line betting by the end of the 3rd term. In the end, they won outright, making the 16.5 point start pleasingly redundant.

On the tipping front we now have the remarkable situation of three tipsters leading BKB: CTL, EI 1 and FTS (all on 12 from 16). BKB and a range of other tipsters are on 11. Home Sweet Home, which recorded the best score of the round with 7, still languishes on 10 from 16. Chi and ELO are now joint last on just 9 from 16.

Though ELO managed just 5 from 8 on tipping to go with its 4 from last week, it managed an extremely profitable 7 from 8 on line betting, moving it to 12 from 16 on line betting across the first two rounds.

ELO also continues to do well in terms of Mean Absolute Prediction Error. It's now at 30.1, a little ahead of Chi on 34.4 and a little behind BKB on 29.1.

On MARS ratings (see www.mafl-stats.blogspot.com for details), the big moves this weekend have seen Carlton move into the top 8 at the expense of Port Adelaide who, as a result of their loss to the Eagles, have dropped to 10th.

Round 2 - An Entree, A Main Course and A Dessert

Investors with Line Redux Fund exposure can look forward to a little more action this week, with bets placed on Adelaide giving 10.5 points start to the Saints on Friday night, on Collingwood giving 32.5 points start the Dees on Saturday, and on Sydney receiving 16.5 points from the Hawks, also on Saturday.

On the tipping front:

• BKB, Chi, ELO and Home Sweet Home find themselves in the minority in tipping the Crows over the Saints
• There's unanimous support for the Cats who are playing the Tigers. ELO has the Cats as 40 point favourites; BKB has them as 44.5 point favourites
• There's further unanimity in the selection of the Pies to beat the Dees, with ELO and BKB again tipping large margins
• The Blues v Lions clash has split the tipsters, with seven opting for the Blues and six for the Lions. Chi, who's on the Blues, has this as one of his two Games of the Round
• Only Home Sweet Home see the Swans grabbing the points in their game against the Hawks. ELO, however, whilst tipping the Hawks, has them as just 3 point favourites
• All tipsters have the Dons finishing with their noses in front of the Dockers, but none of those tipsters who offer margin forecasts have more than about a goal in it. ELO has this as its Game of the Round; Chi has it as his alternate Game of the Round (he's a dog - he's not good at making definitive choices)
• Speaking of Dogs, they're the unanimous tipster choice in their matchup with the Roos. So strong are the Dogs' chance according to Chi and ELO that this is the only game in which they're both predicting that a favourite to cover the spread.
• Finally, in the Eagles v Port game, everyone except Home Sweet Home is on Port.

Had you used Chi's or ELO's tips and margins for line betting purposes last weekend, you'd have scored just 2 from 8 if you'd used Chi's, but a profitable 5 from 8 if you'd used ELO's. This week, if you were following Chi you'd take the teams receiving start in the first six games of the round, and the teams giving start in the last two. If, instead, you were following ELO, you'd swap Collingwood for Melbourne in game 3 and West Coast for Port Adelaide in Game 8.

In terms of Absolute Prediction Error (the absolute value of the difference between the actual margin and the tipped margin), Chi averaged 35.5 points per game last week, ELO averaged 30.9, and BKB averaged just 28.0. You just have to tip your hat to the bookies ...

Round 1: The Washup

All things considered, I'd take those Round 1 results every time.

For Investors, the finest of traditions has been continued and many of them are now a little more wealthy than they were on Thursday, thanks entirely to a stirring comeback from the Hawks that, while ultimately unsuccessful in landing the two points, was good enough to prevent the Cats from covering the spread.

BKB, CTL and most of the heuristic tipsters bagged 6 tips, Chi and ELO bagged 4 (Chi having been 0 from 3 and down at half-time in the next two), and only Home Sweet Home scored worse than chance, recording just 3 from 8.

So, onto Round 2 ...

Gone in Nine Hundred Seconds

So much fanfare for so little action.

Just one bet this weekend: Hawthorn +17.5 against Geelong at $1.90.

(You can download the details via the Wagers, Tips & Results link at right.)

We would - indeed should - also have been on the Lions at -23.5 against West Coast except that the value in the bet disappeared with extraordinary speed earlier today. The Line market went up at 11:49am and then, in the time during which I ran the models and cranked out our bets, which took about 15 minutes, the Line market for the Lions/Eagles game went from $1.90/$1.90 to $1.80/$2.00. Clearly, a bunch of savvy punters saw the opportunity and took it, depriving us of our own opportunity to share in the imbalance. A move of 10c in the first fifteen minutes of a Line market suggests that someone got something terribly wrong.

Had the starts in other games been a little less generous we'd have also been on the Pies and Port (which sounds a little like a desperately unhealthy meal), but 21.5 and 22.5 points start respectively just don't quite offer enough value to justify a nibble.

On the tipping front Richmond, the Lions and St Kilda enjoy unanimous support. Bear in mind that, amongst the heuristic tipsters, all but Home Sweet Home follow Consult the Ladder in Round 1, so the near unanimity amongst them is somewhat artificial.

Chi's Game of the Round is tomorrow night's Richmond v Carlton game in which he's plumped for the Tigers by just 1 point. ELO's Game of the Round is the Hawks v Cats matchup for which it's also predicting a 1 point result. Both are tipping something of a blowout in the Lions/Eagles clash.

(Note that at this point there's no Line market for Sunday's Freo v Bulldogs game. I'll update the download file once this information is available.)

Here's to continuing the tradition of MAFL Round 1 success.

An Important Message for All Investors

The information about each MAFL Fund that I've provided in the downloadable PDF includes how many bets each Fund can be expected to make during the course of the season and how big those bets are likely to be.

For clarity and to avoid surprising anyone, I thought it would be appropriate to re-present some of the data in the PDF from a weekly rather than a whole of season perspective. I've done this in the following table.

So, if you're investing in New Heritage, be aware that it will, if history's any guide, invest at least 25% of the Fund each week and as much as 70% of the Fund in the most extreme weeks. That is a large proportion of the Fund to put at risk but recognise that the average price of the teams on which the Fund wagers is just $1.57. At that price, firstly it's highly unlikely to lose a long string of bets and, secondly, the Fund needs to bet larger amounts in order to generate worthwhile profits.

Similarly, if you've some Chi-squared in your portfolio, be aware that you'll have 25% of the Fund in play about 4 weeks in 10 and around 55% in the most extreme weeks.

Even the Prudence, Hope and Line Redux Funds will occasionally splurge and have 25-35% of Funds at risk, although each of these these Funds will generally be much more sedate than this.

Bearing in mind that it'll only be the Line Redux Fund trading for the first 4 weeks of the season, if you're at all uncomfortable about your portfolio weightings now that you've read this blog you still have plenty of time to advise me of any changes that you'd like to make.

Otherwise, get ready to watch your money work much harder this year.

Welcome to MAFL Stats

Okay, here's a betting strategy - a heuristic if you will - that would have made money had you employed it in the previous three seasons, which is the only period over which I can reliably test it.

To use the strategy you need just three (arguably four) pieces of information about a game:

• which team is the home team (true or notional)?
• what's their price (and are they favourites)?
• are they higher up on the competition ladder?

The rule is that you bet one unit on the home team (true or notional) if:

• they're favourites, higher on the ladder than their opponents, and priced at $1.40 or more
• they're favourites, but lower on the ladder than their opponents, and priced at $1.70 or more
• they're not favourites, but are higher on the ladder than their opponents, and priced at $1.85 or more

If the home team (true or notional) is neither favourite nor higher on the ladder, don't bet.

You can use this strategy from Week 1 of the season, using the final home-and-away season ladder from 2008 to determine ladder positions for Round 1.

This strategy would have made between 45 and 47 bets in each of the previous three seasons, won between about 61% and 66% of them, and returned 5-10% of the amount outlayed.

I'm not promising anything for this year for this strategy, but its pedigree is as good as any of the MAFL Funds'. Consider it a gift.

The 2009 Tipsters Have Arrived

I'd like you to think for a moment about the most recent non-trivial decision you made.

Do you recall how you went about making it? Did you, as the textbooks suggest, gather every piece of information that you could about each available option, carefully weight these pieces of information based on your fully-enunciated preferences, and then make the obvious choice, glowing with the self-satisfaction that comes with making a choice that's rational, completely explicable and just plain right? Oh, you didn't? Well join the very long queue labelled "most of us".

What you almost certainly did instead was to employ what the academics call an "heuristic" and what the rest of us call a "rule of thumb", a way of intelligently using what you know - some of it highly relevant, some of it barely so - to arrive at a decision that is satisfactory and, in its own way, sensible.

This year I've retired from tipping all of the MM and SMM Models, the Uber Model and the Simplified Uber Model, and replaced them with heuristics. Some of these heuristics you'll recognise - BKB, CTL and Shadow - but the remainder are new. If you want to know more, right-click the "Tipsters" link above and download the PDF, which describes the heuristics we'll be following this year (along with a revamped Chi and another new tipster, ELO, which is based on the Team Rating System that I developed last year).