We’ve nine home team favourites this week with their expected victory margins ranging from 8 to 50 points. Three home teams are expected to win by 8 to 13 points, two more by between 22 and 29 points, and the remaining four by between 39 and 50 points.
With Home Sweet Home out of the contrarian market, who will step up?
Read MoreMoSSBODS left the Dogs and Pies in 1st and 2nd this weekend, and pushed the Lions back to 5th, behind the Cats and the Crows. Further down, it moved the Dockers up a couple of spots into 8th and dropped Sydney into the vacancy, and it swapped the Saints into 13th ahead of the Power.
MoSHBODS moved the Crows into top spot, relegating the Dogs into 2nd, and moved the Cats ahead of the Pies into 3rd. It also swapped the Suns into 5th at the expense of the Lions and, further down, moved the Tigers into 16th ahead of the Roos.
That meant that MoSSBODS finished with a Top 5 of Dogs, Pies, Cats, Crows, and Lions, and MoSHBODS with Crows, Dogs, Cats, Pies, and Suns.
Read MoreSeven of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend (and an eighth had to defy fourth quarter history to lower the count by one), which, coupled once again with relatively low levels of contrarianism, saw correct tips scores of sevens, excepting Home Sweet Home’s six.
That left MoSHPlay_Marg still two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best in 1st, and ENS_Linear still three tips futher back from BKB in 3rd.
The all-Tipster average score came in at 6.9 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster average performance to 117.5 from 170 (69%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 39 points.
MoSHPlay has it as Dogs by 53 points and Giants by 13 points (and has preliminary views on the remainder of the round)
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view on tomorrow night’s game is Hawks by 16 points.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is a relatively high 3 points per game, and there are four games where the difference equals or exceeds that value, and four more where it is between 2 and 3 points. Nonetheless, all four forecasters once again have very similar average expected total scores.
Read MoreAll but three of this week’s games could easily get ugly, at least if bookmaker-expected margins are anything to go by. They have four contests being settled by about 7 goals or more, and two more being settled by about 5 goals. The remaining three games are all expected to have single-digit margins, which at least offers some hope for the round.
How much contrarianism then, I hear you ask. Let’s find out.
Read MoreDespite losses for both, the Dogs and the Pies continue to fill the Top 2 spots on both Systems at the end of Round 19 as MoSSBODS leaves untouched its Top 10 teams and MoSHBODS its Top12.
In fact, the only changes this week were GWS taking 11th from Carlton on MoSSBODS, and St Kilda taking 13th from Port Adelaide on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreSix of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend, which, coupled as usual with relatively low levels of contrarianism, saw correct tips scores of sixes, excepting Consult The Ladder, which managed eight, and MoSHPlay_Marg. which managed only five.
All of which meant that MoSHPlay_Marg finished the round now leading Bookie Knows Best by only two tips, with ENS_Linear still three tips behind Bookie Knows Best in 3rd.
The all-Tipster score came in at 6.1 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 110.6 from 161 (69%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at the Pies by 3 goals.
MoSHPlay is staying with the Cats by 34 points but has some slightly different, but still preliminary, views on the two other Sunday games.
MoSHPlay is staying with the Giants by 4 goals and now has preliminary opinions about the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is GWS by 24 points in tomorrow night’s game.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is 2.3 points per game, and there are three games where the difference exceeds 3 points, and one more where it is between 2 and 3 points. All four forecasters once again have very similar average expected total scores.
Read MoreThere’s quite the spread of expected outcomes across the nine games this weekend, with four games expected to be won by less than three goals, two more games by between three and four goals, two more by between five and six goals, and the last by just under seven goals.
That would seem to limit the opportunities for contrarian head-to-head tipping, but let’s see what we have from the models.
Read MoreThe Dogs and Pies continue to fill the Top 2 spots on both Systems, the Cats fill 4th on both, while the Lions and Crows hold down 3rd and 5th in either order depending on the System you prefer.
MoSSBODS reranked only four teams this week, switching the Lions and the Cats in 3rd and 4th, and the Giants and Power in 12th and 13th, while MoSHBODS moved eight teams, but also none by more than a single spot.
Read MoreOnly ive of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend, which, coupled with relatively low levels of contrarianism, saw correct tips scores all in the four to six range.
At the top end of that range were the MoS trio and Home Sweet Home, and at the lower end, the RSMP twins.
All of which meant that MoSHPlay_Marg finished the round now leading Bookie Knows Best by three tips, with ENS_Linear still three tips behind Bookie Knows Best in 3rd.
The all-Tipster score came in at 5.2 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 104.5 from 152 (69%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at the Swans by less than half a point.
MoSHPlay finishes at the Suns in an upset by 8 points.
MoSHPlay is sticking with Lions by 15 points and now has preliminary views about each of the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of the Thursday night game is Lions by 15 points.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is 1.7 points per game, and there is only one game where the difference exceeds 3 points, and two where it is between 2 and 3 points. All four forecasters have very similar average expected total scores.
Read MoreAnother full round of nine games this week although this nine promises to be a lot closer than last weeks’ nine. Six of them are expected to be won by less than 3 goals, two more by just over 4 goals, and the ninth by just over 6 goals.
I can’t imagine there’ll be nine out of nine for anyone this week.
Let’s see what they’re guessing.
Read MoreMoSSBODS left its Top 9 teams unchanged this week, while MoSHBODS did the same for its Top 5, which meant that the round finished with the two Systems still sharing a Top 3 of Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, and Geelong.
Altogether, MoSSBODS made only four changes and MoSHBODS only five, all single spot moves except for Sydney falling two spots to 11th and GWS rising three spots to 9th, both on MoSHBODS.
At the end of it all, the two Systems still had a common Top 3 of Dogs, Pies, and Cats..
Read MoreAll of the nine early-week favourites were successful this weekend, so, once again, contrarianism was the only reason not to tip the card.
Consult the Ladder was a one-game contrarian, and Home Sweet Home a five-game contrarian, meaning that the seven top Head-to-Head Predictors bagged 9 from 9 while Consult the Ladder bagged 8 and Home Sweet Home just 4.
All of which meant that MoSHPlay_Marg finished still leading Bookie Knows Best by two tips, with ENS_Linear still three tips behind Bookie Knows Best in 3rd.
The all-Tipster score came in at 8.3 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 99.3 from 143 (69%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 64 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Suns by 3 goals and has some minor adjustments to its preliminary views of tomorrow’s games.
MoSHPlay is staying with Dogs by 54 points, and now has preliminary views on the rest of the round.
MoSHPlay has - for now - the Thursday night thriller as Dogs by 9 goals
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is 2.7 points per game, and there are five games where the difference exceeds 3 points, and one where it exceeds 7 points. Across all nine games, MoSSBODS’ average is only one point per game higher than MoSHBODS’ but still 2 points per game below the bookmakers’.
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