The MoS twins are slightly more in agreement this week although they still differ by as much as 4 or 5 points in their Totals forecasts for a couple of games. MoSHBODS has the higher Total forecast of the pair in all but one game, and has an average expected Total two points per game higher than MoSSBODS.

The bookmakers, again, have even higher Totals expectations, and have come in a point per game higher than MoSHBODS overall.

There’s very little agreement about the round’s likely highests and lowests, excepting that all concur the Dogs will be the highest scoring team:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

• MoSSBODS: Collingwood v Brisbane Lions

• MoSHBODS: West Coast v Carlton

• Bookmakers: Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne

LOWEST SCORING GAME

• MoS twins: St Kilda v Geelong

• Bookmakers: GWS v Fremantle

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

• All: Western Bulldogs

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

• MoS twins: North Melbourne

• Bookmakers: Richmond

WAGERS

MoSSBODS’ differing opinions have led Investors to have wagers in four games this week, all unders and totalling just over 19% of the original Overs/Unders Fund. Two other, overs wagers have been prohibited by the rain rule.

The estimated overlays for the games where we have wagers range from 4.5 to 17.6 points, and the wager sizes range from 1.5% to 8.8% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were all taken by the TAB or Sportsbet this week, with the pair sharing Game Margin, the TAB taking Home Scores and Game Total, and Sportsbet taking Away Scores.

It’s interesting to note that MoSSBODS has not been best on any metric since Round 15. I suspect this might be because it considers only scoring shots and there have been quite a number of games in that period where conversion rates have been a long way from the 53% average.

We’ve had, for example 6.14, 8.16, 9.18, 11.20, 8.14, and 10.17, as well as 14.4, 13.4, 17.6 (twice), 14.5 (twice), 14.8, and 18.8.

This might be something worth investigating in the off-season.

Two titles switched hands this week as the TAB took Home Scores and Away Scores from MoSHBODS. The leaders and leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 13 points ahead of Sportsbet and 112 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: TAB 4 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 23 points ahead of Sportsbet

Away Team Scores: TAB 7 points ahead of Sportsbet and 10 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Game Totals: TAB 7 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 32 points ahead of MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS had wagers on four games last week, one winning and two losing unders wager with the TAB, and one winning unders wager with Sportsbet.

It ended then at 29 and 34 with the TAB, and at 21 and 13 with Sportsbet, for an overall 50 and 47 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 7 from 9 against the TAB and Sportsbet, which took it to 105 from 189 (56%) against the TAB, and 108 from 189 (57%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS landed 4 from 9 against the TAB and Sportsbet, which took it to 100 from 189 (53%) against both for the season.

(Keen-eyed observers will note that the number of games in which MoSSBODS was on the wrong side of either of the bookmakers’ Totals was two, which is exactly the number of losing bets that it had. It missed out on five other profitable wagering opportunities because the estimated overlays were too small.)

Here’s the updated week-by-week forecasting performance of the twins, and the wagering performance of MoSSBODS.

From Round 8 to 22, MoSSBODS is 74 and 52 (59%) against the TAB and 75 and 51 (60%) against Sportsbet, while MoSHBODS is 70 and 56 (56%) against the TAB and 69 and 57 (55%) against Sportsbet.