Seven of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by no more than about 2 goals, despite involving teams separated by as much as 13 ladder positions in the case of the Adelaide Derby, and by 9 or 10 spots in two other cases. The two remaining games both involve teams separated by exactly 10 ladder positions, but carry expected margins of around 6 to 7 goals.

The all-game average expected margin is 16.8 points per game, which is up by about tw-and-a-half points per game on last week.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Contrarianism this week is confined to Home Sweet Home in four games and the MoS twins in the Friday night game (so the competition ladder is at least good enough to determine favouritism this week, if not the magnitude of that favouritism).

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five games this week: Dogs v Roos (25 points), Dons v Swans (20 points), Hawks v Tigers (16 points), Power v Crows (13 points), and Eagles v Blues (12 points).

MoSSBODS_Marg and Bookie_9 have Extreme Predictor status in four games each this week, and Bookie_9 and ENS_Linear and MoSHBODS_Marg in three games each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are only two games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Dons v Swans (18% points), and Power v Crows (11% points).

MoSSBODS_Prob and MoSHBODS_Prob have Extreme Predictor status in six games each this week, and Bookie_OE in four.

WAGERS

Investors’ relentlessly dwindling eggs are strewn across five different teams again this weekend, with a mix of three head-to-head and four line wagers.

The bookmaker dancing was much shorter this week, but equally annoying:

• Essendon: Wanted 5.0% at $2.55. Received 4.1% at $2.55 and 0.5% at $2.45.

• Western Bulldogs: Wanted 7.9% at $1.90 -39.5. Received 1.4% at $1.90 -39.5, 3.3% at $1.90 -40.5, and 2.5% at $1.90 -41.5

In total, Investors have just under 10% of the original Head-to-Head Fund on three teams, and just under 20% of the original Line Fund on four teams, two of which are in common.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The Ready Reckoner reveals that Essendon carry the most risk this week in the sense that the difference between a win and a loss by 11 points or more represents 10.6% of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is borne by Western Bulldogs (8.9%), then Port Adelaide (6.2%), Richmond (1.7%), and, lastly, GWS (0.8%).

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by 13.5c, while a worst case set would snip almost 15c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.